From a piece just posted at the New York Times wrapping up the anxiety in top GOP circles about what's going to happen on Tuesday:

Joe Gaylord, who was the political lieutenant to Newt Gingrich when he led the Republican takeover of the House in 1994, said that based on polling he had seen in recent weeks, he expected his party to lose 25 seats to 30 seats on Tuesday. That general assessment was repeatedly echoed in interviews with Republicans close to the White House and the Republican National Committee.

“It’s very grim,” Mr. Gaylord said. “Things are dreadful out there.”

Elsewhere in Adam Nagourney's piece, we learn that GOP party leaders are expecting to lose seats held by Reps. Curt Weldon, Chris Chocola and John Hostettler, as well as Senators Mike DeWine and Rick Santorum, and probably those of Senators Lincoln Chafee and Conrad Burns. The piece also notes that Republicans see this election as the first major test of the built-in advantages the GOP's tried to wire for itself with gerrymandering in recent years. If Dems win a majority of the national vote without winning one or both Houses on Tuesday, the rigged national system will be the reason why. Read the whole thing here.

Wall to wall coverage of the non-story that was John Kerry's botched Iraq joke has done nothing to help the GOP or damage Dems, according to a new poll just out this morning from Newsweek. The poll finds that Dems lead the GOP in the generic Congressional matchup by 16 points, 54%-38%, a spread that's consistent with or larger than most recent polls. It also finds that a majority -- 53% -- want Dems to win control of either one or both Houses. President Bush's approval rating is stuck at 35%, and independents support Dems nearly 2-1, 51%-26%. More here.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to an awfully special Midterm Roundup: Saturday Night Fever Edition! … except not at night... unless you're reading this at night. Regardless, this edition of the Roundup is devoted entirely to everybody’s favorite topic ever: voter disenfranchisement!!! You’re obviously very excited, so let’s get right to it.

Though the district held by GOP Rep. John Doolittle is one of the most reliably Republican enclaves in the state, the combination of the Jack Abramoff scandal and Dem foe Charlie Brown's spirited campaigning has turned the race into "one of the year’s surprise hotly contested races," according to CQ Politics. CQ has just changed its rating of the race between Doolittle and Dem challenger Charlie Brown from "Republican Favored" to "Leans Republican." The change reflects the fact that that this year Dems have been able to compete seriously in deep red districts by combining attacks on the GOP culture of corruption with hard-hitting counterattacks on national security issues -- something Brown is doing by aggressively highlighting his own military background. More from CQ after the jump.

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In the wake of GOP Rep. John Sweeney's refusal to release documents surrounding charges of domestic violence in his home, the upstate Post-Star newspaper has just withdrawn its endorsement of Sweeney: "We urge the congressman to release the police documentation he says will unveil the truth about what really happened at his house that night," the paper says. "Given this situation and Congressman Sweeney's unacceptable response to it, we can no longer stand behind our earlier endorsement of his candidacy." Full withdrawn endorsement after the jump.

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The new SurveyUSA poll shows a tied race between Ben Cardin and Michael Steele. The key: black voters. Steele has made inroads with them, and if he wins one-third of the blacks, he could just pull off a win. Steele's charismatic approach has helped him make big inroads in this blue state, and if it were any other year he'd be well on his way to victory.

This has gotten surprisingly little attention. From the New Haven Independent:

A group of New Haven Latino clergy known for virulently opposing gay rights measures threw their support behind U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman's reelection campaign Thursday in a speech that focused on family values and faith. The group said the senator’s opposition to gay marriage contributed to their endorsing him: "We will not support a candidate that will go against the values of the traditional family as we know it and the Bible teaches us."

This endorsement is being touted by the Lieberman campaign on its blog. More on this after the jump.

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The National Journal's Chuck Todd has just updated his House rankings. He thinks Dems will either take the House by just a few seats or, if not, by an enormous landslide:

We're not comfortable giving a range anymore. We believe it's an either/or situation. Either the Democrats narrowly win the House with 16 to 18 seats or they win a 30 to 35-plus landslide. We can't picture them winning 25 seats, because if they take Nos. 24 and 25 on our list, they should also take the next five to 10 below that.

Biggest changes? AZ-05 jumping from 33rd to 20th most competetive race and PA-04 from 43rd to 30th most competitive. Check the rest out here.

This one's a must-see: A new ad is running on local stations in Montana attacking Dem Jon Tester as a member of the "Brokebank Democrats." And just in case you missed the subtle implications of this tag, the ad continues: "They just can't fight their nature." The ad displays the opening credits to a mock movie version of "Brokebank Democrats," telling us that the flick stars "Jon `the taxer' Tester" and warns of higher taxes should "Brokebank Democrats" take over. The ad was paid for by the Free Enterprise Fund, which incidentally also produced this equally subtle ad recently "spoofing" Italian Americans. FEC filings show the FEF is bankrolled almost entirely by Swift Boat Vets funder and reclusive mogul Bob Perry. Don't miss it -- watch it here.

Update: We just checked in with FEF spokesperson Todd Schorle, and he told us that the "nature" the ad was referring to in "Brokebank Democrats" was Dems' tax-hiking proclivities: "They can’t help their nature of being high taxers," Schorle says.

The NRCC has come up with a novel way of attacking Dem Tammy Duckworth on immigration: It's sent out a new mailing packed in a cardboard box, of all things, and the box is labeled, "Welcome to America Kit!" Inside this "kit," which you're supposed to think is for immigrants, is another mailing designed as if it were intended as an offer to illegals. It says: "Enter America illegally and get...Social Security benefits!" There is also a picture of Duckworth, which is obviously meant to suggest that she supports the "offers" to illegals on the mailing. She doesn't, however: Duckworth actually backs GOP Senator John McCain's immigration approach, which doesn't include benefits for illegals. View the box and its contents here.

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It looks as if the GOP's post-Sept. 11 love affair with New York is officially over: The NRCC's latest ad blasting Dem Gary Trauner is attacking him for...being from New York City. As some swing jazz plays in the background, the ad pans across NYC streets and shows an image of Trauner — who's closing fast on GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin in this very red state — in an "I love New York" shirt. The narrator says: "New Yorkers march to a different drummer. Maybe that's why Gary Trauner is so out of step with Wyoming values. He's from New York. Not Wyoming...He might be right for New York. But he's dead wrong for Wyoming." Trauner has lived in Wyoming for over 15 years. Watch it here.

Update: In response to readers' suspicions that this ad is subtly anti-Semitic, Election Central called up Trauner campaign manager Linda Stoval for comment. "When I talked to Helen Kennedy from the New York Daily News, she asked me if I thought that was code," Stoval said. "And honestly, I did not know what she was talking about." Stoval told EC she knows of no anti-Semitic campaigning on Cubin's part — indeed, she doubts that many people even know Trauner is Jewish — and furthermore doesn't think such an attack would have any pull in Wyoming.

With only a few days until election day, big infusions of cash are flooding into critical home-stretch activities like phone-banking, mailings, and last-minute polling to determine where the last bursts of cash for TV ads should be spent, new filings with the Federal Election Commission show. The NRCC dropped $647,842.11 on mailings and phone banks in 40 races in 21 states — plus five polls conducted by the Tarrance Group for seats in California, Idaho, Indiana, Minnesota and Ohio, a possible indication of last-minute triage. The DCCC dumped $914,066.19 on 19 races in 15 states, much of it for mailings and phone-banking. More updates on the parties' spending coming.

A few days ago, a story broke out of Washington state saying that a school bus driver got fired by a local school board last June for giving the finger to President Bush. The story's set off a lot of buzz in Washington political circles, because of an unanswered question at the center of the tale: Did Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA), who was with Bush during the incident, engineer the driver's firing behind the scenes as retribution for insulting the President? His spokesman has been saying that he didn't. But now Reichert -- who's fending off a tougher-than-expected challenge from Dem Darcy Burner -- has been caught on tape boasting to an audience of Republicans that, yes, he did engineer the driver's firing as retribution for the insult to Bush.

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CQ Politics and the Cook Political Report both updated their ratings last night. Here are the latest changes:

CQ

AZ-01: "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." AZ-05: "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." CT-05: "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Cook

GA-12: "Lean Democratic" to "Toss Up." NY-19: "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican." NY-20: "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." PA-04: "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up." WA-08: "Toss Up" to "Lean Republican."

A curious noise emanates from the great Southwest (probably just the cat), the conservative blogosphere is quite sure it’s never heard of this Ted Haggard fellow, and THE BIG 3 is back to a round number! The Midterm Roundup has run out of ideas for the final sentence of its intro and there’s still 4 mornings left. Suggestions appreciated!

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As Election Day fast approaches vulnerable Republican incumbents have picked up some valuable endorsements, from their wives. The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the wives of Curt Weldon, Don Sherwood, and Rick Santorum have all cut ads or penned handwritten letters touting the softer side of their scandal plagued husbands. In one ad Mary Weldon opines that she’s been “forced to speak out” about the “endless, unfounded attacks on Curt and our family.” In a particularly maudlin moment, Karen Santorum appears on the verge of tears as she tells us how it’s “extremely hard, emotionally” to hear attacks on her husband and family, and criticizes Bob Casey for “going after my family.” In Ohio, Mike DeWine’s wife Fran also stars in a new ad highlighting their 39 year marriage and family life. After weeks of running scorched earth attack ads, and still trailing in the polls, these men seem to think that soft and warm might work where slash and burn has failed.

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John McCain appears to be as serious as ever about making nice with the conservative base. He's now starring in not one, but two ads backing Proposition 107, which would not only amend the state constitution to bar same-sex marriage of all kinds permanently, but also prohibiting cities, towns, and universities from providing benefits to unmarried domestic partners. The first of the ads -- which are paid for by the evangelical-backed group Protect Marriage Arizona -- is below; the second is after the jump.

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Now this must feel like a slap in the face: CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between GOP Rep. Barbara Cubin and Dem Gary Trauner from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite," suggesting the possibility of a huge upset. CQ, in a wry reference to the recent incident where Cubin suggested she wanted to "slap" a wheelchair victim, notes wryly that rising public doubts about Cubin in this premiere GOP district stem less from ideology and more from her personality's "rough edge." More from CQ after the jump.

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Political wire has advance excerpts of Stuart Rothenberg's latest ratings, and Rothenberg is predicting a wholesale routing of the GOP. He says Dems will win the Senate: "We believe that state and national dynamics favor Democrats netting six seats and winning control of the United States Senate." And the House by an overwhelming margin: "We believe the most likely outcome in the House of Representatives is a Democratic gain of 34 to 40 seats, with slightly larger gains not impossible." More excerpts from Rothenberg after the jump.

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Two new ads from the DSCC: The first blasts Virginia Senator George Allen on what's become the campaign's central issue — Allen's own personal character. The second — an assault on Arizona Senator Jon Kyl — blisters him for voting in lockstep with President Bush. The latter ad is an interesting sign of just how much the southwestern — and national — political climate has changed: Who would have thought just six months ago that Arizona would be in play, or even that it would be hospitable territory for such an attack, given that it voted twice for the president? Watch them below:

One of the few deciding issues in the race between GOPer Peter Roskam and Dem candidate Tammy Duckworth -- a race which is too close to call -- has been Social Security. Roskam and the GOP have been hammering Duckworth relentlessly on the issue. The attacks have been full of distortions -- okay, outright lies. Case in point: Roskam's latest ad. Many of you won't be surprised by Roskam's mendacity, because you already know Roskam is one of TPM's top-flight Social Security "bamboozlers" (rundown on that here). Watch it:

Despite Roskam's dodgy past support of phase-out schemes, the ad claims Roskam is the candidate who would "protect" Social Security. The ad continues: "Tammy Duckworth supports cuts in Social Security benefits. She’d even raise the retirement age and Social Security taxes. But she would give our Social Security to illegal aliens." All three assertions are false.

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Over at The Daily Politics, Ben Smith is reporting that the National Republican Congressional Committee was having private discussions over how to do "damage control" on Foleygate earlier than suspected:

Two senior aides to National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds participated in “damage control” conference calls concerning correspondence between Congressman Mark Foley and a former congressional page -- two days before the scandal became public, and earlier than previously reported.

Get ready for a political ad bonanza! Election Central has a whole bunch of new political ads here for your viewing pleasure — we have a dialogue between Jon Tester and Conrad Burns; Ned Lamont casting himself as Jimmy Stewart in his hopes to go to Washington; a fun ad from Joe Lieberman, and a new attack ad from Rick Santorum. Check them all out here, after the jump.

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National GOP House strategists are spending big money in Pennsylvania in a last ditch effort to hang on to its imperiled House seats there, new FEC filings show. The NRCC yesterday sank $6,310,539.47 into 42 races in 22 states — over a third of which went into Pennsylvania. The money drop also suggests that reports that the NRCC is scaling back ads in Pennsylvania Rep. Curt Weldon's race may have been premature: the NRCC pumped nearly $650,000 into negative ads against his opponent, Dem Joe Sestak, the filings show. Taken together the expenditures provide an interesting road map to what GOP strategists are thinking at the moment — view some highlights of their spending after the jump.

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The campaign of sinking GOP Rep. John Hostettler has thus far been getting stranger by the day -- and now he may have just lobbed his most lurid charge of all: He warned the other day that electing Dems could bring another 9/11. Today's Evansville Courier Press reports that Hostettler made the claim at a rally of conservative faithful on Nov. 1. The Congressman told the crowd that a Dem takeover of the House would lead to amnesty for illegal immigrants. Then he added: "Some would move about our country freely in order to be here when they got that order from abroad to do us ill in the United States of America just like those did on Sept. 11, 2001." In other words, a vote for Dems may be a vote for another 9/11.

Question: When is it okay to run a political ad with images of the flag-draped coffins of soldiers? Answer: When you're a Republican. Back in July, the National Republican Congressional Committee held a press conference to denounce its Dem counterpart, the DCCC, for running a web ad showing such coffin imagery. Many other senior Republicans, including House majority leader John Boehner, condemned the ad, and it was a raging controversy for days until the DCCC pulled it. But guess what: Now there are not one, but two Republican ads which show an image of flag-draped coffins -- and one of them has been paid for by, yep, the NRCC. More after the jump.

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Larry Sabato's latest predictions are in, and they're extraordinary. He's predicting a Dem pickup of 23-30 House seats, and five or six in the Senate. But here's what may be the most interesting part: Sabato thinks it's possible that the GOP may not take a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship from Dems. In other words, he thinks a complete shutout of the GOP may be in the offing. More from Sabato after the jump.

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In a sign that the massive amounts of cash being pumped by national GOP strategists into Bob Ney's old district aren't overcoming the lingering voter distaste with Ney's corruption scandal, CQ Politics has just changed its rating of the race between Dem Zack Space and Ney's handpicked successor, Joy Padgett, from "No Clear Favorite" to "Leans Democratic":

It appears that this significant outlay by the GOP’s House campaign committee did not hinder Space’s momentum, even though he likely would be a longshot candidate were it not for the scandal-driven downfall of the long-popular Ney.

The largely rural eastern Ohio 18th, which includes small cities such as Zanesville and Chillicothe, has a conservative lean...Ney in 2002 didn’t even draw a Democratic opponent, and in 2004 defeated a little-known Democrat with 66 percent to win a sixth House term.

But the political environment in Ohio now is far different today than it was two years ago....At a time when most voters are dissatisfied with the direction of the country and with a Congress that the GOP controls, Ohio Republicans’ problems are redoubled by numerous ethics controversies involving not just Ney, but outgoing GOP Gov. Bob Taft and several of his aides and political associates.

CQ's full analysis here.

A new batch of polls from Reuters/Zogby finds that Dems -- who need to win six Senate seats to take control of the chamber -- are leading in, yes, six races for GOP-held Senate races, though in two cases the lead is statistically insignificant:

RI: Whitehouse (D) 53%, Chafee (R) 39% PA: Casey (D) 48%, Santorum (R) 40% OH: Brown (D) 49%, DeWine (R) 40% MO: McCaskill (D) 46%, Talent (R) 43% VA: Webb (D) 45%, Allen (R) 44% MT: Tester (D) 47%, Burns (R) 46%

The poll also finds that in Tennessee, GOP candidate Bob Corker has a 10-point lead over Dem Harold Ford, Jr. Pollster John Zogby comments: "The Democrats have a real shot at the Senate now, and six weeks ago you probably could not have said that. But it's still a jump ball, and there has been volatility both ways."

Conrad Burns finally launches the secret devastating attack on Jon Tester he has been saving up all year, Katherine Harris fades away and radiates, and breaking news: the Virginia Senate race is starting to get a little wild. The Midterm Roundup cannot tell you how many days are remaining until Election Day as it has lost the ability to compute numbers.

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In the wake of polls showing Dem Jim Webb edging ahead of GOP Senator George Allen, political analysts are beginning to paint a grim picture of his reelection chances. CQ Politics has just downgraded the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite." Says CQ: "Even though other Republican senators are as or more vulnerable than Allen, it can be argued than none has fallen further over the course of this year." Robert Novak, meanwhile, is even tougher: He's just shifted his rating of the race from "Leans GOP" to "Leans Dem," saying that Allen "is on the verge of losing his Senate seat." Novak labels Allen's effort a "circus campaign," and concludes ominously, "it is much easier to dump an incumbent in a circus campaign than it is in a serious campaign."

New statement from John Kerry:

As a combat veteran, I want to make it clear to anyone in uniform and to their loved ones: my poorly stated joke at a rally was not about, and never intended to refer to any troop.

I sincerely regret that my words were misinterpreted to wrongly imply anything negative about those in uniform, and I personally apologize to any service member, family member, or American who was offended.

It is clear the Republican Party would rather talk about anything but their failed security policy. I don't want my verbal slip to be a diversion from the real issues. I will continue to fight for a change of course to provide real security for our country, and a winning strategy for our troops.

Connecticut's three Democratic House challengers received good news from state officials today when they reported that 82 thousand new voters have registered in the state since May, including more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans. About 31 thousand new Democrats, 12 thousand new GOPpers and 39 thousand new independents brought the total number of registered voters in Connecticut to a record 1.9 million. The AP quotes a UCONN professor of public policy who says the implications are “huge”: “I think the new registrants, given the Democratic advantage, can serve to put the Democrats over the top in any one of the races given how close they are."

Recent polling has each of the three Connecticut House races extremely close, with the Democrats having a slight edge in at least two of the three races going into the final week.

Robert Novak's latest analysis is just in, and he predicts the Dems will take the House with a pick-up of 20 seats while falling just short of the Senate with only five of the six needed pick-ups. His ratings changes:

Senate: VA-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem OH-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem WA-Sen: Lean Dem to Likely Dem MI-Sen: Likely Dem to Lean Dem

House:
NM-01: Likely Dem to Lean Dem
CA-11: Likely GOP to Lean GOP
KY-03: Lean GOP to Likely GOP
PA-04: Lean GOP to Likely GOP
NY-26: Lean Dem to Lean GOP
CT-05: Lean GOP to Lean Dem
FL-16: Lean Dem to Lean GOP
FL-13: Lean GOP to Lean Dem
IN-02: Likely Dem to Lean Dem
NV-03: Lean Dem to Lean GOP
OH-18: Lean GOP to Likely Dem
MI-07: Safe GOP to Lean GOP
NE-03: Safe GOP to Lean GOP
GA-12: Lean Dem to Lean GOP

"Going into the last week of the campaign, there is no sign of a Democratic wave or a Republican wave," Novak concludes. "It still looks like a good day for Democrats looming on November 7, but not necessarily a catastrophe for Republicans." Novak's full analysis here.

Let's stipulate one thing about this campaign: When it comes to creative flyers, no race has topped the one between Dem Ed Perlmutter and GOP House candidate Rick O'Donnell. You'll recall that O'Donnell not long ago sent out a groveling mailer begging forgiveness for having once written that he wanted to phase out Social Security. Now the state GOP has sent out another one in the district which -- while quite a bit darker in tone -- is every bit as innovative. The flyer charges that his opponent, Dem Ed Perlumtter, made some "soft on crime" votes as a former state senator. But here's the rub: The mailer appears to be designed to look like an official notification sent out when the government wants to alert you to a sex offender living in your community.

More ratings changes from CQ Politics:

* ID-01: CQ's just shifted its ranking of the race in this staunchly conservative district between GOPer Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican": "Sali’s unpredictable temper and history of conflict with members of his own party, an issue in the primary campaign, has since made it unexpectedly difficult for him to get 1st District Republicans to close ranks behind him."

* KS-02: CQ's also changed its rating of the contest between GOPer Jim Ryun and Dem Nancy Boyda -- once seen as a sure GOP win thanks partly to Ryun's iconic status as a record-setting runner in college -- from from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican": "The fact that Bush, according to Associated Press, is expected to make a late campaign appearance for Ryun suggests GOP officials may be more worried about the Kansas 2 campaign than they let on. Officials with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee evidently saw something they liked. Although they still have not included this district on their list of targeted challenge races, they did make a small ad buy in late October."

It isn't easy to find a ratings change favoring the GOP these days, but here's one: Charlie Cook has just changed his rating of the race for Tom DeLay's seat between Dem Nick Lampson and GOP write-in candidate "Leans Democratic" to "Toss Up." This contest is a strange one, to say the least. A recent poll found the race to be tighter than expected, with 36% for Lampson and 28% for Sekula-Gibbs. But it's impossible to gague the poll's accurate, because Sekula-Gibbs' name won't be on the ballot and voters might be confused by the write-in wrinkle. On the other hand, the poll also found that 52% knew of the write-in requirement and know how to handle it. We'll find out soon enough.

More ratings changes from CQ Politics:

ID-01: CQ's just shifted its ranking of the race in this staunchly conservative district between GOPer Bill Sali and Dem Larry Grant from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Republican": "Sali’s unpredictable temper and history of conflict with members of his own party, an issue in the primary campaign, has since made it unexpectedly difficult for him to get 1st District Republicans to close ranks behind him."

* KS-02:CQ's also changed its rating of the contest between GOPer Jim Ryun and Dem Nancy Boyda -- once seen as a sure GOP win thanks partly to Ryun's iconic status as a record-setting sprinter in college -- from from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican": "The fact that Bush, according to Associated Press, is expected to make a late campaign appearance for Ryun suggests GOP officials may be more worried about the Kansas 2 campaign than they let on. Officials with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee evidently saw something they liked. Although they still have not included this district on their list of targeted challenge races, they did make a small ad buy in late October."

Check out the new DCCC ad hammering the GOP Congress brutally hard over Iraq -- and make sure you don't miss the image towards the middle of a dazed and confused looking Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and George Bush:

If there's one relic that should go into the time capsule so future generations can marvel at the depths of absurdity and self-parody the GOP plumbed during this election, it may be this video of today's press briefing with Tony Snow. In it, Snow demands over and over that Kerry "apologize" for his botched Iraq joke, saying again and again that Kerry hasn't said "I'm sorry," even though Kerry did just that earlier today. Snow then actually says he's suggesting Kerry apologize in order to help him. Snow: "This is helpful advice! We're trying to help you out! We're throwing you a lifeline, buddy! Just say you're sorry! It's not hard!" To which a reporter replies: "Have you thought about sending Senator Kerry a gift basket?" Watch it here. It's a marvelous thing to behold.

John Kerry has nothing to apologize for -- his prepared remarks weren't disparaging to the troops in any way. But at any rate, Kerry said he was "sorry" for the botched joke hours earlier, on MSNBC.

A staggeringly large amount of money flooded into the battle for control of the House yesterday, as the GOP and Democratic Party dump a combined total of over $4.5 million races into dozens of House races across the country, new FEC filings show. We have highlights of the spending after the jump — and they're well worth a look, because they provide a snapshot of the latest thinking of the parties on the electoral map.

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