Sen. Evan Bayh is set to be the next Dem to make a move towards a Presidential run, filing papers to set up an exploratory committee early next week, the Associated Press is reporting. Bayh has a history of electoral success in Indiana, a Republican-leaning state, where he's served as Governor and Senator. The AP also notes a history of careful centrism:

As a member of the Senate Intelligence and Armed Services committees, Bayh was one of the first Democrats to support military action in Iraq. But in December 2005, he changed his position, saying he would not have supported legislation authorizing the invasion if the facts the Bush administration used to support the move had been presented to him accurately.

Bayh, 50, has charted a centrist’s course throughout his political career, including two terms as governor and eight years in the Senate. He also has served as chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council, which is a prominent voice for moderation within the party, and has helped establish the centrist New Democrat Coalition.

Though the preferred storyline of the moment about Hillary Clinton is that she's erring by keeping too low a profile while Barack Obama sizzles and dazzles in the spotllight, it appears that she may in fact be doing some necessary (though behind-the-scenes) work in preparation for her possible Presidential run: That is, keeping the donors happy. A Hillary source tells The Politicker that Clinton will soon be holding a brunch and dinner for donors designed to "thank" them for their help (read: Get ready to get shaken down again) and is also scheduling times to wine and dine others, too. The Politicker concludes that "she is using the sleepy holiday season to perform some necessary maintenance work on the '08 machinery."

The first reports are in from Barack Obama's appearance at Pastor Rick Warren's AIDS summit — and it appears that despite sticking to the liberal positions that had engendered resistance from many conservatives, Obama got a warm reception from the Evangelical crowd. Key excerpts from the AP's coverage:

"It's not a question of either treatment or prevention or even what kind of prevention," the Illinois Democrat said to applause during the Global Summit on AIDS at the church.

"It is all of them. It is not an issue of either science or values, it's both," said Obama, who is considering a run for the White House in 2008.

Obama said faith-based organizations and church ministries like the one at Saddleback have crucial roles to play in the prevention effort.

"I also believe that we can't ignore the fact that abstinence and fidelity, while ideal, may not always be the reality," he said. "We're dealing with flesh and blood men and women, not abstractions."

Obama said his faith led him to the belief that providing condoms to those at risk for AIDS was critical, despite the fact that some may be having premarital sex or being unfaithful to their spouses.

"I don't accept the notion that those who make mistakes in their lives should be given an effective death sentence," he said to more applause.

As reported earlier, President Bush's 2004 pollster, Matthew Dowd, told today's Chicago Tribune that Obama or other Dems can appeal to voters who attend mega-churches like Saddleback by explaining controversial positions within the context of faith, hence gaining "support for taking a principled stand." Which is exactly what Obama did.

Keith Ellison, the first Muslim member of Congress, may be awfully frighting to some folks, but he's also proving rather useful to at least one religious right organization: The American Family Association, which is using the specter of Ellison being sworn in on a Koran as a way to raise money. Check out this AFA "Action Alert," which blares: "A first for America...The Koran replaces the Bible at swearing-in oath."

Then at the end comes this conclusion: "If you think our efforts are worthy, would you please support us with a small gift?"

The specter of Ellison getting sworn in on the Koran may be frightful indeed, but it just so happens that the notion that the Koran is "replacing the Bible" at the swearing-in is based on a complete falsehood: The swearing-in ceremony for Representatives doesn't even include a Bible. Of course, the fact that this is all a hoax doesn't mean it's not useful for raising money. Via Huffington Post.

Here at TPM, we're keeping track of those conservatives who have started blaming problems in Iraq on...the American people. Specifically, there are some who blame Democrats and other war critics for weakening American resolve, and who appear to believe things would be going so much better if not for domestic dissention. Here's what we have:

Stanley Kurtz: "Unfortunately, the constraints of domestic American public opinion do not match up to what is actually needed to bring stability and democracy to a country like Iraq."

Mort Kondracke: "President Bush bet his presidency — and America’s world leadership — on the war in Iraq. Tragically, it looks as though he bit off more than the American people were willing to chew."

Cliff May: "Of all the possible responses, the most perverse may be this: To propose that Americans pull out of Iraq, abandoning innocent Iraqis to the tender mercies of those dispatching the terrorists.

"Yet that is what many Americans now favor, perhaps because they have been persuaded that when Sunnis and Shites kill one another, Americans must be to blame. With apologies to Carly Simon: We're so vain, we probably think this sectarian strife is about us."

Michael Reagan: "Unlike the heroic Polish King Jan III Sobieski, who stood at the gates of Vienna and fought and defeated the Islamists and thereby saved Europe, the Democrats appear willing to step back this time and open the gates in this latest episode of the centuries-long, never-ending war to impose Islamist rule upon the entire world."

Tony Snow: "...the unity of the American people is something much to be desired, because in a time of war, and especially a tough, long war, you do need the support of the public over the long haul."

Here's some more on George Will in light of his startingly dishonest column on Jim Webb yesterday. Steve Benen of The Carpetbagger Report reminds us of another of Will's displays of journalistic hocus-pocus, in which Will rearranged a transcript of remarks by Wes Clark to make it reflect less favorably on him. Benen's catch is definitely worth a read in retrospect, reminding us as it does that the Webb column is hardly the first time Will has indulged in slippery distortions, if not outright dishonesty, to smear Dems. Benen adds of the Webb episode that "columnists have been disciplined for less."

Will, meanwhile, can blithely rearrange people's quotes, or simply remove them if they're inconvenient, secure in the knowledge that it will be shrugged off as "part of the game." On that score, our letter to Post ombud Deborah Howell about Will's latest is here.

Conservative activist Gary Bauer has joined the ranks of Christian conservatives that are urging their fellow travelers to look past Mitt Romney’s Mormon faith when considering him as a viable presidential candidate. The Christian news service Agape Press reports that Bauer said that when it comes to choosing who to vote for, issues should trump theology. "There are all kinds of people out there that I have deep theological differences of opinion with, but I might be willing to vote for them for senator or Congress or president, depending on the circumstances and who they were running against," Bauer, the president of American Values, tells Agape.

Bauer adds that he's not worried about Romney using the White House as a platform for the LDS Church: "I don't know how he would do that. I think the public and the media would be on him in a second if he did anything that promoted his particular faith. And, in fact, I think he would be very hesitant to even appoint other Mormons to his cabinet."

Mitt Romney, who's trying to cast himself as the true conservative alternative to John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, has appointed a little-known budget planner with zero science experience to a state board which doles out funding for stem-cell research and other biotech initiatives, the Associated Press reports. Romney's pick, Aaron D'Ella, was given the job of executive director for the Massachusetts Life Sciences Center at a salary of $125,000 a year, and no search for better-qualified candidates was undertaken. Though D'Ella supports research using embryos left over from fertility treatments, he opposes embryonic cloning, and his appointment was opposed by the president of the University of Massachusetts, as well as Dem Governor-Elect Deval Patrick.

Yesterday George Will published an appallingly dishonest column in the Washington Post attacking Jim Webb over the now-famous confrontation he had with President Bush. The column also provoked a very strong response from many of you readers. So here's a slightly edited version of the letter we emailed to Post ombud Deborah Howell about Will's effort. From the letter:

Should Post readers conclude that Will's egregious distortions and clear-cut misrepresentation of the facts are considered journalistically acceptable by the Post's editors and leadership? Should they conclude that the Post's columnists are above being required to observe even the most basic journalistic standards?

Full letter after the jump.

Read more »

Yesterday George Will published an appallingly dishonest column in the Washington Post about Jim Webb. Here's our letter to Post ombud Deborah Howell about it:

In your most recent column, you ironically share with readers the following quote: "An old newsroom saying goes: Don't let the facts get in the way of a good story." In that spirit, I wanted to direct your attention to what Will did in his column yesterday. Will relied on some reporting in the Post from the day before on a now well known episode where Webb and President Bush exchanged words at a White House reception. But in recounting the episode, Will completely misrepresented the Post's reporting on it in order to change the storyline into one that fit the column he was writing.

Full letter after the jump.

Read more »

It turns out Mitt Romney may have done something that is even more offensive to the conservative base than his past expressions of tolerance for gays: He hired illegal immigrants. The Boston Globe, which broke the story, asked Romney for comment. His response? "Aw, geez." TPMmuckraker's Paul Kiel has the details.

"It's a two-way contest between McCain and Romney."

—Rich Galen, strategist for Newt Gingrich, admitting his candidate doesn't stand a chance yesterday at a forum of GOP strategists. Galen spoke of Gingrich's potential role as a candidate who could pitch ideas and affect the debate, but had little optimism about an actual victory.

With Barack Obama set to make a controversial visit to Evangelical guru Rick Warren's Saddleback Church today, a top GOP pollster who's worked on Presidential cammpaigns says in an interview that Obama, as well as Dems in general, are positioned to make gains among voters who frequent so-called "mega-churches" such as Saddleback. The adviser, Matthew Dowd, told the Chicago Tribune that his work as President Bush's pollster in 2004 convinced him that the "mega-church" vote is more in flux and far less easy to pigeonhole than many suspect:

Based on exit polls from the 2004 election, Dowd estimates that about half of those who attend mega-churches identify themselves as Democrats or independents, not Republicans. And many of them are less interested in specific issues than in a principled leader who shows genuine faith and can rally them toward greater common purpose, he said.

"People's understandings of faith are not nearly as polarized as people in politics think they are," Dowd said.

He cites the success of Virginia's Democratic Gov. Tim Kaine in defending his opposition to the death penalty in a state where capital punishment is extremely popular. Kaine explained his position as an important moral teaching of his Catholic faith and gained support for taking a principled stand, Dowd said.

In any event, Obama signaled in his speech in June and will reinforce again Friday that he will make faith a part of his public persona.

"Democrats have not been able to use language in a faith-based way," Dowd said. "Somebody is going to see that conversation is not taking place in the right way, and Barack Obama is one person who recognizes that."

We'll be bringing you much more on Obama's appearance at Saddleback later today.

With big states like California and Michigan trying to move up their primaries to inflate their importance in the nomination process, Dem leaders are offering states a variety of incentives to induce them to keep their primaries late, the Associated Press reports. "States that have traditionally come late in the process and gotten little attention in the process would get a `small bonus' of delegates to the 2008 convention if they stay put," the AP says. "States willing to move their events later in the year would get `significant bonuses.'"

The effort, which could be voted on by the Democratic National Committee in February, is meant to prevent big states from "frontloading" the primary process, which would favor well-funded candidates like Hillary Clinton who would be flush enough to fund a big-state primary effort early in the game. The idea is that stacking the primary process in favor of better-funded pols prevents all the candidates from being subjected to a more drawn-out series of primaries that would better determine the long-term electability of those candidates. More here.

Is the suddenly-everywhere Barack Obama on the verge of outflanking potential Presidential rival Hillary Clinton? The New York Post, clearly desperate to get some kind of Hillary narrative going, pushes that storyline as hard as it can today, running a piece pointing out that she hasn't had a public appearance in two weeks. "Hillary Rodham Clinton has gone into hiding while rising rival Barack Obama dashes off to key battleground states and plans national TV appearances in advance of a likely presidential run," the paper shouts. The Post adds mysteriously: "Her aides said only that she is resting at home in Chappaqua." (Resting? Could she be ill?)

MSNBC, meanwhile, takes a somewhat more sedate look at the question, asking: "Will Obama force Clinton's early entry?" One Dem's answer: “I don't think Obama's water-testing is going to affect Hillary's timing. She is pretty disciplined, and there is no reason right now to deviate from her plan.” Here's our answer: There are nearly two years between now and Election Day 2008. Let's get a grip.

Update: We just checked in with Hillary spokesperson Ann Lewis to ask about the Senator's low visibility and the Post's "resting in Chappaqua" line. Lewis emailed us:

"She said she would think seriously about what she'll do in '08, and she is. She's also been making calls to say thank you to people who were so helpful in the New York campaign, and getting ready for the Senate next week."

This certainly isn't going to make Dem Presidential hopeful Joe Biden any more popular with the segments of the Democratic primary electorate who see him as a Joe Lieberman-like "bipartisan" shill for the GOP. The Wilmington Star reports that Biden said the following when invited to address an audience of Republicans in South Carolina:

Biden told the crowd he needs the GOP and its supporters to put Nov. 7 behind them. "America needs -- I need -- the Republican Party to get back up," he said. "Not a single change in direction can be done without a bipartisan consensus in this country."

Biden knew it was a Republican audience, but said he wasn't surprised people lingered and listened.

"I don't find a lot of difference between Republicans and Democrats right now," Biden said.

Not surprisingly, the GOP audience approved heartily of Biden's performance. More here.

With Tom Vilsack's announcement today that he's running for President, Iowa Dems face a dilemma: Avoid throwing all their support behind favorite son Vilsack, or see the Caucuses become irrelevant if the other candidates pull out. The Sioux City Journal reports that while it's unlikely candidates like Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton would cede the state if the vast majority of Iowa Dems back Vilsack, it's not impossible.

If it does happen, these Dems say, Iowa could suddenly become a political ghost town. As ex-Congressman and former state party chairman Dave Nagle tells the paper, "The first time there's even a perception of unevenness, we're going to be a very lonely state." We doubt it, but we'll see what happens.

Is Jerry Falwell — who famously observed that 9/11 was "probably what we deserve" for violating God's commandments — an influential figure in the Republican Party, or a mere fringe figure? This scene at the Republican Governors Assocation gathering, reported over at National Review's The Corner, could perhaps give us a clue:

Scene from a corridor outside a conference room here at the RGA meeting:

Young staffer with a cell phone to ear: "Reverend Falwell? Governor Perdue would like to talk to you"

He then hands phone to Perdue who walks off down the hall...

Perdue is the incoming RGA Chair, succeeding Mitt Romney.

As we've been documenting here at Election Central, Mitt Romney's efforts to present himself as the true conservative alternative to John McCain and Rudy Giuliani keep getting complicated by the troubling evidence of social tolerance that continues to emerge from Romney's past. Well, now it's gotten worse than you ever thought possible.

Case in Point: Via Andrew Sullivan, check out this passage from Bay Windows, an LGBT newspaper in New England:

Anyone thinking of supporting Romney’s bid for president because of his socially conservative views on gay people should know a few things about the governor. When Romney ran against Ted Kennedy for the Senate in 1994, he wrote a letter to the Mass Log Cabin Club in which he pledged: “[A]s we seek to establish full equality for America’s gay and lesbian citizens, I will provide more effective leadership than my opponent.” During the same campaign, when he was accused of having once described gay people as “perverse” during a religious meeting of Mormons, Romney’s campaign issued a forceful statement decrying the accusation as false and reiterating that Romney respected “all people regardless of their race, creed, or sexual orientation.”