House Dems Showing Record Unity
For all the talk from pundits of Dem disunity on Iraq, a study by the Washington Post's Paul Kane of the House Democrats shows them maintaining a record level of unity in their newfound majority. The average House Dem votes with the caucus 94% of the time. Compared to the previous record level of partisan cohesiveness — the first two years of the George W. Bush Administration — the GOP majority at the time showed an average party-line voting record of just 90.4%.

Obama Missing Iowa Dem Event Today
Barack Obama will be the only leading Democrat absent from tonight's Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame banquet, which will be attended by 1,000 activists from around the state. Instead, he is finishing up a tour of fundraisers in California and Washington state.

John Edwards, The National Intelligence Estimate, And His Vote For The War
Edwards again says he did read the classified NIE. We have an ongoing and bracing discussion of the significance of his vote to authorize the war, and his repudiation of it, right here.

Romney: Immigration Bill "Not Technically Amnesty"
Mitt Romney, who has ridiculed the immigration bill as being amnesty, told the Sioux City Journal that the word amnesty "is such a loaded term and we probably ought to get a lawyer to say. And I understand that in some respects this is not technically amnesty, because it does come with some penalty." Nevertheless, Romney said the bill has "key features of amnesty" and "Whether or not that is technically amnesty, it is amnesty-lite, amnesty in form, and it is something which I don't support."

All The Dems Back Some Federal Recognition Of Gay Marriage
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich all support federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it might be permitted — in other words, they would support the repeal of a key portion of the 1996 Defense Of Marriage Act — according to their answers to a questionnaire from the Human Rights Campaign. Only Dennis Kucinich supports the direct legislation of gay marriage rights under federal law.

McCain Distances Himself From Bush's Rhetoric On Immigration Bill
Speaking in Iowa yesterday, John McCain put some distance between himself and the President, who had declared that opponents of the immigration bill "don't want to do what's right for America." "The President, and all of us, feel frustrated sometimes by the criticism and the level of the dialogue," McCain said. "I respect the views of those who disagree with us. I don’t question anyone’s patriotism or love of this country. I wish we could lift up the level of discourse and dialogue."

Romney Visits Thompson Country Tonight
Mitt Romney will be keynoting a Tennessee Republican Party dinner tonight, an event that was scheduled before the emergence as a candidate of the state GOP's favorite son, Fred Thompson. "I think people will give (Romney) good Southern hospitality and a good Southern welcome," said former GOP Congressman Van Hilleary, who was the 2002 Republican nominee for Governor. Romney may certainly get a positive welcome, but it's not certain he'll actually get many votes or donations — many of those in attendance, including Hilleary, are supporting Thompson. Thompson, for his part, will be speaking to a GOP event in Virginia.

Richardson Selling Stock In Oil Company
Bill Richardson is selling his stock and options in oil refining firm Valero. Richardson's holding, valued between $100,001 to $250,000 in stock and $250,001 and $500,000 in options, was one of the many contentious issues the candidate had to deal with in his Meet The Press interview last Sunday, given his calls for energy independence.

Hillary Endorsed By Key Iowa Dem Jerry Crawford
Hillary Clinton has picked up the support of Jerry Crawford, an attorney from Des Moines who has served as the state campaign chairman in the Iowa caucus for the last five Democratic nominees for President — including, of course, Bill Clinton in 1992.

California Primary Ballot Could Feature Non-Binding Iraq Question
The Democratic-majority State Legislature in California is expected to approve a bill to place on the February 5 primary ballot a resolution calling for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. It is not known whether Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger would sign or veto the bill, given his record of support for direct democracy versus his GOP partisanship. Some Republicans see an ulterior motive for the bill: It could drive turnout of Democratic constituencies who would be expected to vote in favor of a separate question, to extend the state's severe term limits on state legislators.

House Dems Showing Record Unity
For all the talk from pundits of Dem disunity on Iraq, a study by the Washington Post's Paul Kane of the House Democrats shows them maintaining a record level of unity in their newfound majority. The average House Dem votes with the caucus 94% of the time. Compared to the previous record level of partisan cohesiveness — the first two years of the George W. Bush Administration — the GOP majority at the time showed an average party-line voting record of just 90.4%.

Obama Missing Iowa Dem Event Today
Barack Obama will be the only leading Democrat absent from tonight's Iowa Democratic Party Hall of Fame banquet, which will be attended by 1,000 activists from around the state. Instead, he is finishing up a tour of fundraisers in California and Washington state.

John Edwards, The National Intelligence Estimate, And His Vote For The War
Edwards again says he did read the classified NIE. We have an ongoing discussion of the significance of his vote to authorize the war, and his repudiation of it, right here.

Romney: Immigration Bill "Not Technically Amnesty"
Mitt Romney, who has ridiculed the immigration bill as being amnesty, told the Sioux City Journal that the word amnesty "is such a loaded term and we probably ought to get a lawyer to say. And I understand that in some respects this is not technically amnesty, because it does come with some penalty." Nevertheless, Romney said the bill has "key features of amnesty" and "Whether or not that is technically amnesty, it is amnesty-lite, amnesty in form, and it is something which I don't support."

All The Dems Back Some Federal Recognition Of Gay Marriage
Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards, Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd, Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich all support federal recognition of same-sex marriages in states where it might be permitted — in other words, they would support the repeal of a key portion of the 1996 Defense Of Marriage Act — according to their answers to a questionnaire from the Human Rights Campaign. Only Dennis Kucinich supports the direct legislation of gay marriage rights under federal law.

McCain Distances Himself From Bush's Rhetoric On Immigration Bill
Speaking in Iowa yesterday, John McCain put some distance between himself and the President, who had declared that opponents of the immigration bill "don't want to do what's right for America." "The President, and all of us, feel frustrated sometimes by the criticism and the level of the dialogue," McCain said. "I respect the views of those who disagree with us. I don’t question anyone’s patriotism or love of this country. I wish we could lift up the level of discourse and dialogue."

Romney Visits Thompson Country Tonight
Mitt Romney will be keynoting a Tennessee Republican Party dinner tonight, an event that was scheduled before the emergence as a candidate of the state GOP's favorite son, Fred Thompson. "I think people will give (Romney) good Southern hospitality and a good Southern welcome," said former GOP Congressman Van Hilleary, who was the 2002 Republican nominee for Governor. Romney may certainly get a positive welcome, but it's not certain he'll actually get many votes or donations — many of those in attendance, including Hilleary, are supporting Thompson. Thompson, for his part, will be speaking to a GOP event in Virginia.

Richardson Selling Stock In Oil Company
Bill Richardson is selling his stock and options in oil refining firm Valero. Richardson's holding, valued between $100,001 to $250,000 in stock and $250,001 and $500,000 in options, was one of the many contentious issues the candidate had to deal with in his Meet The Press interview last Sunday, given his calls for energy independence.

Hillary Endorsed By Key Iowa Dem Jerry Crawford
Hillary Clinton has picked up the support of Jerry Crawford, an attorney from Des Moines who has served as the state campaign chairman in the Iowa caucus for the last five Democratic nominees for President — including, of course, Bill Clinton in 1992.

California Primary Ballot Could Feature Non-Binding Iraq Question
The Democratic-majority State Legislature in California is expected to approve a bill to place on the February 5 primary ballot a resolution calling for an immediate withdrawal from Iraq. It is not known whether Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger would sign or veto the bill, given his record of support for direct democracy versus his GOP partisanship. Some Republicans see an ulterior motive for the bill: It could drive turnout of Democratic constituencies who would be expected to vote in favor of a separate question, to extend the state's severe term limits on state legislators.

Okay, we're not wholly sure what to make of this. While we completely admire John Edwards' repudiation of his vote to authorize the Iraq War, we're uncertain about the Edwards campaign's handling of an issue related to it.

Specifically: We've just discovered another example of John Edwards saying -- in apparent contradiction of his spokesman -- that he read the classified pre-war version of the National Intelligence Estimate containing serious caveats about Iraq's weapons programs and the need for war.

As you may have heard, Edwards took some heat yesterday for saying at a Google town hall on Wednesday night that he had read the classified version of the estimate.

That seemed to contradict an Edwards spokesman who just a few days earlier had said he hadn't read the classified NIE.

In addressing why Edwards had told the Google town hall that he'd read the document, his spokesman said that he'd misunderstood the question and that he'd always said he'd only read the declassified version, not the classified one.

But here's a transcript of Edwards on Meet the Press on February 4, 2007, where he again seems to be saying the opposite:

MR. RUSSERT: General Scowcroft, former President Bush’s national security advisor. And the National Intelligence Estimate that was given to you and now made public had some real caveats, and this is one of them. “ The activities we have detected do not ... add up to a compelling case that Iraq is currently pursuing what INR [the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research] would consider to be an integrated and comprehensive approach to acquire nuclear weapons.” Do you remember seeing that?

SEN. EDWARDS: Mm-hmm, I did see it. I mean, I, I think it was -- there were serious questions about whether -- again, we’re looking back. Now we know none of this was true. But, at the time, there were serious questions about any effort to obtain nuclear weapons, which is what that statement just was. All of us believed there was no question that he had chemical and biological weapons, and there was at least some scattered evidence that he was making an effort to get nuclear weapons.

The caveat Russert cited is in the originally classified version, i.e., the version Edwards' spokesperson said he hadn't read. But here he seems to be saying he had read it -- or at the very least had been briefed on the key caveats therein. The Edwards campaign declined to comment when we contacted them about this.

Let's be clear: In some key ways the dust-up over who read the whole NIE is a distraction and a side-issue.

Read more »

Cato Institute: The Voters Are Ignorant And Proud Of It
Bryan Caplan at the Cato Institute has a fascinating new essay out, arguing what many of us have suspected for quite some time: The voters are stupid. "I offer an alternative story of how and why democracy fails," Caplan writes. "The central idea is that voters are worse than ignorant; they are, in a word, irrational — and they vote accordingly. Despite their lack of knowledge, voters are not humble agnostics; instead, they confidently embrace a long list of misconceptions."

Obama To Union: I'll Walk A Picket Line With You
Barack Obama made a bold promise to the Culinary Workers Union in Las Vegas: If the hotel workers can't get a contract, he's ready to march on the picket line with them. "All we’re asking for is make sure the burdens and benefits of this new global economy are spread evenly across the board," he said. "That if profits are going up for everybody, then those profits are shared with workers. If CEO’s have free healthcare, then workers get free healthcare."

Poll: Voters Think Rudy And Hillary Have Best Chance Of Winning
A new Gallup poll finds that more respondents think Rudy and Hillary are the candidates with the best chance of winning the nomination of their respective parties. Eighty-three percent of Dems think Hillary has the best shot at the Dem nomination, while 76% of GOPers think Rudy has the best chance at the Republican nomination.

Pelosi: Bush Still Doesn't Get It On Global Warming
Speaker Nancy Pelosi lambasted what she called the Bush Administration weak new position on global warming: "Yes, he says now he believes that global warming is happening and he accepts the science that it is ... But if that were so, if he truly understood that, he could not have come up with a proposal that is 'aspirational.'" Pelosi is calling upon the House to pass legislation to restrict carbon emissions.

Obama Campaign Divests Of Rezko-Connected Money
Barack Obama's campaign has announced that it will donate to charity $5,000 that the Senator received in his 2004 campaign from Ali Ata, a former Illinois state official who has been indicted for helping to secure a $10 million loan for Antoin Rezko, money later used in a fraudulent scam. Obama's campaign has previously donated $11,500 personally donated by Rezko, a longtime patron of Illinois Democrats who is now under federal indictment. Rezko had helped to raise millions of dollars for Obama over the course of his the Senator's in Illinois.

Hedge Fund Money Going To The Dems
A study by Reuters shows that managers at the top hedge funds donated $1.1 million to Presidential candidates in the first quarter, and an astonishing 75% went to Democrats — a possible sign of the party's momentum. Chris Dodd received the most money, $347,300, followed by John Edwards $190,650, then Hillary Clinton at $164,600.

U. of Missouri Restarting Search For New Head — Could Trigger House Special Election
The University of Missouri is restarting its search for a new president from scratch after their reported top choice, businessman Terry Sutter, abruptly withdrew from consideration. Governor Matt Blunt (R) has now endorsed the candidacy of GOP Congressman Kenny Hulshof, who has also been angling for the job. If the university's curators ultimately pick Hulshof, his resignation from the House would trigger a potentially competitive — albeit still GOP-leaning — special election.

Courtesy of departing Bush adviser Dan Bartlett, here it is -- the perfect expression of the Bush White House's all-consuming up-is-downism:

“It’s been a roller coaster that seems always to go up,” Bartlett said of his White House years.

Yep -- just perfect.

(H/T Wonkette.)

CNN:

Thompson filed papers Friday with the Tennessee Secretary of State creating "Friends of Fred Thompson," a state-based corporation that will raise and spend money to gauge interest and support for a possible Thompson White House bid.

Under federal law, prospective candidates are allowed to raise and spend money to "test the waters" for a bid for federal office without having to create a federal campaign committee. However, once a candidate declares his or her candidacy, the candidate must then go back and report any money raised and spent during the "testing the waters" phase. These organizations have been called both "exploratory" and "testing the waters" committees.

The advantage to Thompson in creating a state committee is that it allows him to begin raising money for a possible presidential campaign, but exempts him from having to file a detailed campaign finance report for this quarter.

Thompson probably wouldn't want to file a report this quarter, since the tally would certainly be much lower than those of his competitors. After all, he only has the month of June this quarter, while the others been busy raising cash for the last two months.

So Rudy Giuliani has just lost his internet guru, Patrick Ruffini.

Ruffini, a contributor to Town Hall, was a key Rudy employee and is a big deal among right-wing bloggers. He has "considerable street cred with the conservative blog set," according to The Politico's Jonathan Martin, and he previously oversaw Internet strategies for Bush's reelection and for the Republican National Committee. Ruffini has now left his job as Rudy's Internet adviser, and the split looks to be amicable.

But the main reason we bring this up is because Ruffini gives us a chance to offer an entry for the vast and growing Atrios Iraq Accountability Database, which is devoted to storing an ever-more-voluminous number of wrong public predictions about the Iraq War.

So here's our entry. Ruffini, writing for Town Hall back in February:

Shhhh...The Surge Is Working

A gloomy haze has settled over the nation's prosecution of the War on Terror as of late. It seems like we can only watch helplessly as Nancy Pelosi and Jack Murtha size up new angles of attack for undermining the war effort. The media is chomping at the bit to tell the story of an America, bruised and humbled and exhausted, heading for the exits in Iraq.

But something interesting is happening on the way to the "new direction." Early indications are that the troop surge into Baghdad is working...The strategy that Congress is busy denouncing is proving to be our best hope for victory....

This turnaround in Baghdad is confirmed at home by the media's near-deafening silence.

Shhh...that was three months before the violence of May, which killed at least 122 U.S. troops and was the worst month for U.S. troops in over two years.

Here's a fun addendum to the big story today about how the Republican National Committee laid off a bunch of phone-bank fundraisers because its facing a grass-roots rebellion from donors unhappy with President Bush's immigration policy.

It appears the immigration backlash is wreaking havoc of sorts at another of the GOP's committees, too: The National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Yesterday, the NRSC's blog boasted what looked like an innocent enough experiment: It offered readers a chance to debate immigration on line by creating "an online dialogue focused on the immigration reform legislation."

The handlers of the NRSC's blog posted two videos of NRSC chief Mitch McConnell defending two key aspects of the immigration legislation. Then -- under a heading that read "disagree" -- it also posted two forceful attacks on McConnell's arguments, one from leading GOP Senator Jim De Mint, a move that was inexplicable because it highlighted just how deep the divisions are in the GOP Senate caucus over the issue.

That's a no-no, of course, because the whole purpose of a committee like the NRSC is to highlight the successes and unity of the caucus, not to spotlight divisions and infighting. And the screw-up drew howls of derision from Democratic insiders who

As Ben Smith notes, this is a wonderful quote from today's New York Times piece on Barack Obama's style of basketball playing:

Mr. Obama is left-handed, and his signature move is to fake right and veer left, surprising players used to guarding right-handed competitors.

The obvious double meaning -- that Obama fakes right and veers left politically, too -- is fun enough.

But there's another entertaining layer of meaning here that makes this even more fun. Who are the "players" being "surprised" by Obama's moves? Easy: Centrist Dems, Beltway pundits, all-around D.C. insider types. In other words, the folks who are used to "guarding right-handed competitors" -- that is, taking their cues from Republicans and letting the GOP frame the D.C. narrative -- and hence are getting caught off guard by the astounding success of an unabashed liberal.

Hey, it's Friday.

A great catch by Steve Benen. Check out Rudy's latest attack on Hillary, this one over her call for tax hikes on the rich:

In a potential preview of next fall's presidential contest, Mr. Giuliani, who is seen as the front-runner for the Republican nomination, directly attacked the leading Democratic candidate, Mrs. Clinton, over a speech she gave Tuesday in New Hampshire bemoaning the return of "robber barons" and promising to pursue "shared prosperity" by increasing taxes on Americans making more than $200,000 a year.

"This would be an astounding, staggering tax increase," Mr. Giuliani told reporters yesterday after a visit to a restaurant on the edge of California's Silicon Valley. "She wants to go back to the 1990s. … It would hurt our economy. It would hurt this area dramatically."

Back to the nineties? What a truly awful prospect.

As Benen notes, attacking someone for wanting to restore the peace and prosperity of that decade -- in Silicon Valley or anywhere else -- perhaps isn't the soundest political strategy.

After all, the President who presided over that era enjoys a favorability rating that is nearly twice that of the current White House occupant. Large majorities see that President's marriage to Hillary as an asset, to boot. Dems can only hope that Rudy keeps saying this.

Another entry for the Jeff Gerth chronicles. Picking up on this, today's New York Post reports:

June 1, 2007 -- The New York Times, which is usually so scrupulous, failed to alert its readers to a conflict of interest regarding Jeff Gerth, the co-author of "Her Way: The Hopes and Ambitions of Hillary Rodham Clinton." In an excerpt from the book in the Times' upcoming Sunday magazine, Gerth is described as "a former investigative reporter for The Times." It doesn't mention that Gerth is married to Janice O'Connell, a top foreign policy aide to one of Clinton's Democratic presidential primary opponents, Sen. Chris Dodd.

No question, The Times screwed up here. The real question, though, is this: Why didn't Gerth insist that the paper include a disclaimer telling readers that his wife works for one of Hillary's rivals?

Boehner Working On "Branding" For The GOP's Image
Leading a party that is taking a beating in the polls, House Minority Leader John Boehner is forming a group of allies to work on "branding" for the GOP — finding a way to polish and even change their image. "We're trying to look into our conscience and define ourselves, and as we define ourselves, decide how we can best communicate that to the rest of the world," said Rep. John Carter (R-TX). "In other words, what are Republicans?"

RNC Fired Phone Fundraisers
The Washington Times reports that the Republican National Committee fired all of its 65 telephone solicitors because their operation had a 40 percent drop in contributions and would have required a substantial new investment in equipment. "Every donor in the 50 states we reached has been angry, especially in the last month and a half, and for 99 percent of them immigration is the No. 1 issue," said one former employee. – T. W. Farnam

Edwards Camp Retracts: He Did Not Read Full Classified NIE
The John Edwards campaign has retracted Edwards' answer to a question at his recent town hall at Google headquarters, in which he said he'd read the classified National Intelligence Intelligence. A spokesman said Edwards misunderstood the question, pertaining to the classified portions of the NIE, and had simply read the unclassified report.

Another Top Bushie Leaves
White House Counselor Dan Bartlett has resigned, marking the loss of one of the President's longest-serving advisers.

Jeb Bush And Ken Mehlman: GOP Should Have Hispanics, Shouldn't Alienate Them
In a new column in the Wall St. Journal, Jeb Bush and Ken Mehlman argue that Hispanics, being social conservatives and overall pro-business, ought to be natural Republicans — but the GOP needs to stop alienating them by pushing the immigration issue. "Republicans have shown we can win Hispanic voters when we reach out," they write. "We've also seen what happens when Republicans adopt a different approach." Many in Jeb's organization have gone for Mitt Romney, but this could signal a possible split between the two over immigration.

Fired McCain Christian Outreach Aides: Campaign Had "A Contempt For Christians."
Two former aides to the John McCain campaign, who were brought on to do outreach to Christian conservatives, now say the campaign did not actively involve them or take any of their suggestions. "The way we were being treated it was as if we had leprosy," said former staffer Marlene Elwell. Their only real job: To gather church membership lists for the campaign.

Report: Bush Pounds Chest, Calls Iraq Occupation "Our Country's Destiny"
In what can only be a disturbing picture of American leadership if true, foreign affairs columnist Georgie Anne Geyer reports of President Bush, "Friends of his from Texas were shocked recently to find him nearly wild-eyed, thumping himself on the chest three times while he repeated 'I am the president!' He also made it clear he was setting Iraq up so his successor could not get out of 'our country's destiny.'"

Labor Divided On Illegal Immigration
The labor movement is reportedly split on the issue of the new immigration bill, and the issue of illegal immigration overall. The AFL-CIO has tended to view illegal immigrants as unwanted competitors in the job market, while SEIU and Unite Here are more welcoming.

Anti-Rudy Catholics Organizing On The Right
Conservative Catholics opposed to Rudy Giuliani's positions on abortion, gay rights and other issues have been working hard to organize against the candidate. "Rudy Giuliani is an unacceptable Republican nominee for President of the United States," declares the Michigan-based Conservative Declaration, which claims supporters in 30 states. "He is pro-abortion, pro-partial birth abortion, pro-registration of handguns, and pro-homosexual rights."

Fred Thompson Salutes Troops — In Anti-Identify Theft Firm's Radio Ad
Fred Thompson has done voice-work for a new ad campaign by LifeLock, a firm that offers services against identity theft. Oddly enough, the ad starts with a salute to America's troops, setting an All-American tone for the candidate in waiting, before proceeding to a promotion of the company's services.

FEC Fines Kerry-Edwards Campaign
A Federal Election Commission audit found that the Sen. John Kerry's (D-MA) 2004 presidential bid spent $1.4 million more than the $74.6 million it was allowed after accepting federal matching funds. The commission voted unanimously yesterday to fine Kerry the entire amount of overspending, but the decision is likely to be appealed and will almost certainly set off a partisan debate about how labor costs are apportioned. — T. W. Farnam

Republican Declares Against Freshman Dem Klein
Retired Army Lt. Colonel Allen West has declared his candidacy against freshman Congressman Ron Klein (D-FL), who defeated long-time GOP Congressman Clay Shaw last year. "Voters in next year’s elections will be offered two distinct visions for the future of our country: strength or weakness, resolve or indecision, security or vulnerability," West said in his announcement. Former Navy pilot Mark Flagg is also currently running, and other local GOP'ers may join the race.

GOP Congressman Wicker Spills The Beans On Military Contracts
The office of Rep. Roger Wicker (R-MS) issued a press release this morning touting a $623 million contract from the Pentagon for a firm in his district. The problem, according to Roll Call, is that the Pentagon has a policy of announcing contracts at 5 p.m., after the stock market closes, so as not to disrupt trading. Wicker, the paper says, "may have moved the stock market today, whether he meant to or not." A spokesman for Wicker said their office was not told about the policy when the contract was awarded.

PETA Asks For Vegetarian Tax Break, Citing Global Warming
People for Ethical Treatment of Animals wrote a letter to Democratic Congressional leaders stating that vegetarians create less greenhouse gas emissions and should therefore receive a tax break for their diets “just as people who purchase a hybrid vehicle enjoy a tax break.” The letter cites research saying that a switch to a hybrid vehicle reduces a person's output of greenhouse gases by one ton each year while giving up meat would save 1.5 tons. – T. W. Farnam

As you know, we're obsessed with this whole question of whether the media will cede Rudy the aura of national security experience based on nothing more than the fact that he was Mayor of New York on 9/11. So we're gonna keep banging away at it until someone listens or until we get hauled away in a straight-jacket, whichever comes first.

The latest offender is today's New York Times:

Another presidential candidate, Rudolph W. Giuliani, a Republican, sought Thursday to further burnish his national security credentials by announcing his endorsement by Louis J. Freeh, the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation appointed by President Bill Clinton.

But again, Rudy doesn't have any national security credentials. There's nothing for Rudy to "burnish." In order to have credentials in a particular field or area of human endeavor, you need to have actual experience in it. Rudy doesn't. He is trying to burnish his image as someone with national security credentials.

This distinction matters -- a lot -- and the media's failure to recognize it could make Rudy the next President.

Obama: My Health Plan Is The Best Approach For Now
Barack Obama said that his health care plan, which focuses on extending coverage rather than guaranteeing 100% universal care, is "a smarter approach to provide affordable, universal health care" within a private health care system, as opposed to the more radical proposals of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. For true 100% coverage, Obama said, would not come until "we build a movement around the country for change."

Edwards and the National Intelligence Estimate
The big John Edwards "controversy" of the day is that he told a Google town hall that he had read the confidential National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, contradicting what his spokesman said a few days ago. Asked at the conference if he'd read the NIE, he said, "I read it. I read it." But Edwards' own spokesman told Ben Smith of The Politico that he hadn't read it. Our preliminary read, though we're far from certain, is that Edwards screwed up. We think he — wrongly — wasn't responding to the actual question and was addressing the larger question of whether he'd read intel on the war, which he'd been talking about previously. Nonetheless, the question itself was very specifically about the classified NIE. Video of Edwards at the conference is here — the key moment comes around 39 minutes in. — G.S.

In Louisiana, Nagin Considering Gubernatorial Bid
Ray Nagin, the controversial Mayor of New Orleans, is reportedly considering a bid for Governor this fall. Nagin has raised more than a half-million dollars since he was re-elected last year, even though he's term-limited out of office. Nagin would face an uphill climb, to say the least, against Republican Congressman Bobby Jindal — whom Nagin himself crossed party lines to endorse for Governor in 2003.

Thompson Takes Hawkish Stance On Israel And Iran
In a new column at Townhall.com, Fred Thompson argues on behalf of Israel's policies in the Gaza Strip, calling them a necessary reaction to terror, and saying that Israel has acted with restraint. At the end of the essay, Thompson turns the focus to Iran: "If the world doesn't act to stop Iran's nuclear ambitions, it must be prepared for the consequences of Israel defending itself."

Hillary Does Fundraiser With News Corp. President
A big Hollywood fundraiser last night for Hillary Clinton was at an interesting venue: The home of Peter Chernin, CEO of News Corporation — the parent company of Fox News. Also at the fundraiser were Steven Spielberg, Tobey Maguire, Jodie Foster and Ben Stiller — who, interestingly enough, has already attended an event for Barack Obama.

Clark Still Won't Rule Out Run
Ben Smith reports that Wes Clark still hasn't ruled out another run for President. "I haven't said I won't run," Clark said. "I think about running every single day." If that's true, then Clark should declare soon — like three months ago.

Romney: Hillary Worse Than The French
Mitt Romney has pulled off the cool trick of simultaneously engaging in Hillary-bashing and France-bashing. "She gave a speech a couple of days ago and laid out her vision for America," Romney said. "And as I listened to her I figured her platform wouldn't even get her elected in France."

Sabato Looks At Special Elections
Larry Sabato has an analysis up of five definite or potential vacancies in the House this year — in Massachusetts, California, Georgia, Missouri and Louisiana — and concludes that they are all in seats that would either certainly, or more likely than not, remain with their current parties in the special elections.

Edwards Links Energy Policy to Budgets of Middle-Class Families
Speaking in California today, Democratic presidential contender John Edwards unveiled; an energy policy that calls for investigating oil companies, regulating energy markets, mandating the use of biofuels, and raising fuel economy standards to 40 miles per gallon by 2016. The result, he said, would be lower fuel prices for American families. – T. W. Farnam

Gillibrand Gets Primary Challenger
Morris Guller, a political activist from Lexington, New York, has announced that he will challenge freshman Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand in the primary next year, citing her vote for the Iraq funding bill. "To vote 'yes' to supply additional funds to prolong the suffering and deaths of American troops and Iraqi citizens, to break your promise to help bring a quick end to this war ... is devastating," Guler said in a letter to Gillibrand.

Thompson Leaving "Law and Order"
The Web site HappyNews.com reports that former Senator and likely 2008 presidential contender Fred Thompson will not be returning to the next season of "Law and Order." Additionally, Thompson plays President Ulysses S. Grant in the HBO movie "Bury My Hear at Wounded Knee" which premiered Sunday. – T. W. Farnam

Gore Supports Democratic Leaders on Iraq Funding
Former Vice President Al Gore told the Politico's John Harris that Democrats should give their Congressional leaders the "benefit of the doubt" on their efforts to end the war in Iraq. "When they don't have the votes to override the president's veto, they have to do the best they can to frame new options," Gore said. – T. W. Farnam

New Hampshire Literally Refuses To Trade Freedom For Safety
The New Hampshire State Senate has defeated a proposal to require wearing seatbelts in a car. The vote was 8-16, with six Democrats joining all ten Republicans. While state law does require all people under age 18 to buckle up, New Hampshire remains the last state where adults can legally ride in cars without their seatbelts on.

The big John Edwards controversy of the day is that he supposedly lied when he told a Google conference yesterday that he had read the confidential National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.

Asked at the conference if he'd read the NIE, he said, "I read it. I read it." This is being held up as contradicting what his own spokesman told Ben Smith of The Politico a few days ago: Chiefly,

Former Vice President Al Gore told the Politico's John Harris that Democratic Party activists should give the Congressional Democratic leadership the "benefit of the doubt" on its efforts to end the Iraq war, which have been loudly criticized by some for their tepidness:

"I would urge Democrats who want our troops out yesterday to show some understanding of the difficult hand the Democratic leaders have to play and give them the benefit of the doubt in expecting that they are going to continue to push the mandate they received from the voters last fall to change the course of this war."

Gore also told ABC News on Tuesday, the same night of his interview with Harris, that he himself would have voted "no" on the bill that the Democrats negotiated with President Bush for funding the war, despite the fact that it included no timeline for withdrawal and gave the president most of what he had asked of Congress.

Gore insists he isn't running for president in 2008 but continues to encourage speculation and egg on would-be drafters. Harris writes that Gore implied he might be tempted to run an unconventional campaign using the Internet as a way to get past the problems of contemporary politics, which he said "rewards a tolerance for artifice, repetition, triviality that I don't have in as great supply as I might have had when I was younger.":

"The solutions to what ails American democracy will take some time and will have to come from a broad engagement by people who do use the new opportunities and tools that are becoming available," he said. "And I think that out of that evolutionary process there may emerge opportunities for new kinds of candidates in both parties."

New Chris Dodd ad on global warming:

Just as with his earlier ad on Iraq, Dodd clearly is trying to stake out ground as bolder, more radical and less fearful than his more cautious Dem rivals when it comes to advocating solutions to the biggest of the big problems. Of course, John Edwards has already planted a fair amount of his own flags on this turf, on topics ranging from Iraq to global warming to Internet availability. Can Dodd make inroads?

Thomas Marino, the U.S. attorney for the Middle District of Pennsylvania who appeared on a short list of U.S. attorneys to be fired last November, is considering a run for Congress, he confirmed in an interview with us yesterday.

Marino is eyeing the state's 10th District seat, currently held by Dem Chris Carney, who defeated incumbent Don Sherwood last November amid allegations that Sherwood choked his mistress.

In a phone interview, Marino told us that he was "considering" a run for the seat -- but added that it was "one of several options that I have." It's certainly an active consideration: Marino said that he'd met a number of Pennsylvania Republicans, including Republican National Committee staffers, to discuss a possible bid. When asked whether he was being recruited for a run, he only said that there had been people at the federal, state, and local level who have been "encouraging" him to run for the seat.

The NRCC's operatives have privately described Marino as a choice candidate for the district, and the local Pennsylvania press has floated his name, but this is the first time to our knowledge that Marino has publicly acknowledged or discussed that he was actively considering a run. The earliest that Marino would decide whether to seek a bid, he said, would be early next year.

Marino's active consideration of a run is noteworthy partly because U.S. attorneys risk skirting ethics regulations when they move to run for office.

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Great Moments In Fox News Dept. ... Okay, this one takes a little bit of explanation, but stick with us, and we're sure you'll get a decent laugh out of it. More after the jump.

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A new poll just out from Siena College undermines one of the Rudy Giuliani campaign's key talking points to Republican audiences: That he'd be a fearsome adversary in a general election because he'd put blue, east-coast states like New York in play.

As Rudy himself put it a week ago: "My view of this race for president is that the Republican Party should not go into this election, as we have in the past, having to write off New York, Connecticut, New Jersey."

But the new poll, which is of New York voters, makes you wonder just how worrisome that prospect should be for Dems in the real world.

The poll finds that in New York, Giuliani certainly does better than the other Republican candidates. Nonetheless, he still loses to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama by wide margins:

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39% Obama (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 40%

Sure, Rudy would do better in east-coast blue states than his GOP rivals, but would he really put New York in play in any meaningful sense? Not according to these numbers.

Meanwhile — and not at all surprisingly — the poll finds the top two Dem candidates absolutely overwhelming the other GOP candidates in New York:

Clinton (D) 54%, McCain (R) 36% Clinton (D) 57%, F. Thompson (R) 29% Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 33% Gore (D) 56%, F. Thompson (R) 28%

A new poll by Siena College would seem to question just how much good Rudy can do for the GOP on one of his campaign's main talking points. A big part of his campaign has been the idea that he can compete in deep blue states that have been off-limits to other Republicans, which could potentially guarantee victory if true.

"My view of this race for president is that the Republican Party should not go into this election, as we have in the past, having to write off New York, Connecticut, New Jersey," Rudy said a week ago. "We've got to make this a 50-state election."

The new poll, however, casts some doubt on this. In New York, where the voters know him best, Giuliani certainly does better than the other Republican candidates. But the problem is, he still loses by wide margins to both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, and it isn't even close.

Clinton (D) 52%, Giuliani (R) 39%
Clinton (D) 54%, McCain (R) 36%
Clinton (D) 57%, F. Thompson (R) 29%
Obama (D) 50%, Giuliani (R) 40%
Obama (D) 50%, McCain (R) 33%
Gore (D) 56%, F. Thompson (R) 28%

An innovative new Gallup poll offers an interesting look at the state of public opinion on Iraq. It asks the following open-ended question (meaning that respondents supply their own answers):

If you could talk with President Bush for fifteen minutes about the situation in Iraq, what would you, personally, advise him to do?

Focus on getting U.S. troops out of Iraq: 54%

Focus on continuing with current policies or becoming more aggressive: 25%

So 54% volunteered some version of, "Let's get the heck out." Only a quarter of respondents offered some version of, "Let's keep doing things your way."

Editor and Publisher gets it right, commenting that the poll "reveals just how far the president and Congress -- and most newspaper editorial pages -- appear to stand from the wishes of the American public on getting out of Iraq."

That's for sure.

Say one thing for Democratic strategist Bob Shrum: He's not afraid to share inside info even when it makes him look very, very bad.

Take a look at this new excerpt from his political tell-all book in this week's Time magazine. In it, he details a behind-the-scenes meeting at which he advised then-Senator John Edwards -- whom Shrum was advising in the Fall of 2002 -- to vote to authorize the Iraq War. While Shrum perhaps deserves credit for candor, it really is kind of startling to see Shrum revealing that he worried that not just Edwards, but he himself, would look left wing if Edwards voted against it:

To my continuing regret, I said he had to be for it. As I listened to this, I watched Edwards's face; he didn't like where he was being pushed to go. The process violated a principle I'd learned long before—candidates have to trust their own deeply felt instincts. It's the best way to live with defeat if it comes, and probably the best way to win.

The meeting we held in the Edwardses' family room did him a disservice; of course, he was the candidate and if he really was against the war, it was up to him to stand his ground. He didn't. If he had, it almost certainly would have been Edwards and not Dean who emerged early on as the antiwar candidate. But Edwards didn't want to look "liberal" and out of the mainstream; he was, after all, the southern candidate and thought of himself as Clintonesque. He valued the advice and prized the support of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council. I had my own concerns: If he took the antiwar route, I knew I would have been characterized as a malign force moving him to the left -- which wasn't true, although I wish it had been given that I now regard the Iraq invasion as one of the great mistakes in the history of U.S. foreign policy.

Priorities.

Fred Thompson Building His Campaign
The Washington Post reports that Fred Thompson and company will be working hard to build his late-entering campaign. "Within the next few weeks, advisers say, a real campaign will take shape, even without a final decision or formal announcement. A Web site will be posted, campaign headquarters will be selected, and a staff will be hired. The signature red pickup truck from Thompson's Senate campaigns will be dusted off." Of course, is makes sense for the campaign to take shape without a formal decision: Thompson appeared to admit yesterday that his supposed coyness about running, which helped generate a draft movement, was all a ruse.

Troops To Lieberman: "When Are We Going To Get Out Of Here?"
On a trip to Iraq yesterday by Senator Joe Lieberman (ID-CT), the troops he took questions from had one constant query to pose to him: "When are we going to get out of here?" A Connecticut constituent of the Senator, Spc. Will Hedin, said to McClatchy News, "We're not making any progress. It just seems like we drive around and wait to get shot at." Lieberman had his own take on the situation: "Overall, I would say what I see here today is progress, significant progress from the last time I was here in December. And if you can see progress in war that means you’re headed in the right direction."

Thompson Likely To Be On Straw Poll Ballot — Whether He Wants It Or Not
Jonathan Martin reports that although Fred Thompson and his nascent campaign are unsure of whether or not they should compete in this August's Iowa Straw Poll, his name may be put on the ballot by the state GOP anyway. "It’s our party, and we decide whose name is on the ballot," said Iowa GOP executive director Chuck Laudner. Mitt Romney is currently viewed as the heavy favorite for the poll, which is viewed as a crucial test of activist support in the state.

McCain: "Fred's A Very Good Friend. I Guess My Words Are, 'Come On In, The Water's Fine.'"
John McCain responded yesterday to news that his friend and former supporter Fred Thompson is also a more than likely contender for the 2008 Republican Presidential nomination. Thompson endorsed McCain's 2000 Presidential bid at a time when his campaign was far behind, and the pair also worked together to secure passage of McCain's landmark campaign finance reform law. — T. W. Farnam

Associated Press Slimes Hillary
Taylor Marsh catches some really atrocious AP reporting on Hillary. — G.S.

Congressional Quarterly Analyzes Thompson Record
Congressional Quarterly has put together an analysis of Fred Thompson's voting record in the Senate, finding he voted along with John McCain 81.4% of the time on what CQ deems to have been key votes. Thompson's average score of from the American Conservative Union was slightly to the right of Chuck Hagel (85%) and John McCain (82%) for the same period. Sam Brownback weighed in at an even more conservative 94%. Meanwhile, Club For Growth head Pat Toomey has given a positive initial review of Thompson's record: "As a general matter, I think Fred Thompson’s career in the Senate demonstrates a guy who does have a pretty strong commitment to limited government, free enterprise and particularly federalist principles."

Edwards Pitches Broadband Development
John Edwards chose a town hall at Google headquarters as the location to pitch his plan for cheaper, more available broadband. " For this democracy to work it needs to be from the ground up, not the top down," Edwards said. Edwards' plan involves the FCC setting aside some of the available broadband capacity for wholesalers to lease to start-ups serving underdeveloped areas.

Clinton FBI Director Endorsing Rudy
Louis Freeh, who served as head of the FBI under the Clinton Administration, is endorsing Rudy Giuliani. Freeh has been a critic of Bill Clinton, alleging that there was not a sufficient focus on security in his government. "Until 9/11, we lacked the political leadership and more important the political will to do what had to be done," Freeh wrote in his 2005 book, My FBI.

Obama And Romney Present Foreign Policy Stances
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have each outlined their positions on foreign policy in new, lengthy essays featured in Foreign Affairs magazine.

Romney: GOP Needs To Offer Its Own Health Insurance Solution
Mitt Romney told a Des Moines crowd yesterday that the Republican Party has to offer their own response to Democratic calls for universal health care, which he characterized as "government-mandated, government-run, government insurance," with a focus on public support for privately administered care. "That's got to be the right answer for us, because government running something is almost by definition going to be inefficient, ineffective and expensive," Romney said."

Sam Brownback Explains Evolution/Creationism Position
Sam Brownback, one of the three Republicans who raised his hand at their first debate to say he did not believe in evolution, has a guest piece in The New York Times explaining his position. "Biologists will have their debates about man’s origins, but people of faith can also bring a great deal to the table. For this reason, I oppose the exclusion of either faith or reason from the discussion," Brownback writes. "An attempt by either to seek a monopoly on these questions would be wrong-headed. As science continues to explore the details of man’s origin, faith can do its part as well." Brownback has been a support of intelligent design advocates in his home state of Kansas.

Obama Asks Dodd For Hearing on Executive Pay
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) sent a letter last night to Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT), a rival for the Democratic Presidential nomination, asking him to hold a hearing on executive compensation, a topic Obama hopes to address with a new bill. Dodd, who is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, had no comment last night, according to the Wall Street Journal. — T. W. Farnam

Republicans Like Richardson's Job Qualifications, Or At Least His Ads
The Hill reports on a new survey showing Republicans favorably rated ads that Governor Bill Richardson (D-NM) ran touting his qualifications for president in a mock job interview, which we highlighted three weeks ago. — T. W. Farnam

Stonyfield Yogurt CEO Not Running Against Sununu, Endorses Marchand
Gary Hirshberg, a prominent Democratic fundraiser, has ended speculation about a potential bid against Senator John Sununu (R-NH) by endorsing Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, who is running in the Democratic primary against staunch centrist Katrina Swett. As you may recall, we noted in March that Swett supported Joe Lieberman's 2006 independent campaign against Dem Ned Lamont in Connecticut, and defended her actions by falsely claiming that Liberman was endorsed by Barack Obama. — T. W. Farnam

In New Hampshire, Dems Showing More Energy
The Boston Globe reports on an interesting dynamic in the New Hampshire primary: While the top Democratic candidates have had to issue tickets to their overflowing events, Republicans have had trouble mobilizing any on the ground energy from their own people. "The enthusiasm is definitely on the Democrats' side, still," said former GOP Congressman Charlie Bass, who lost his seat last year. "I don't think there has been any change in the environment up here since the election last year."

Quinnipiac: Hillary, Rudy Continue To Lead In Pennsylvania
A new Quinnipiac poll finds Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani continuing to lead in their respective primary races in Pennsylvania. Hillary Clinton takes 33% of Democrats, followed by non-candidate Al Gore at 16%, and actual candidate Barack Obama falling to third place with 13%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 28%, John McCain 11%, and Fred Thompson 10%.

Alaska's Palin: Massively Popular
Two recent polls from Alaska-based polling firms show that Governor Sarah Palin (R) may be the most popular Governor in the country. Ivan Moore Research puts Palin's approval rating at 89%, while a poll two weeks ago from Dittman Research pegs her at an even most astonishing 93% approval. Palin, elected on a fiery populist image, has announced plans to create a position to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has promoted plans for a state-built natural gas pipeline. While she opposes same-sex marriage, Palin nevertheless instituted domestic partner benefits for gay state employees and vetoed a bill to stop such benefits.

Cynthia McKinney: 2008 Green Party Presidential Candidate?
Cynthia McKinney, the former left-wing Democratic Congresswoman from Georgia who lost her primary last year after hitting a Capitol Hill policeman, apparently refused to rule out a run for President on the Green Party ticket. "So, you know, 2008 has not been ruled out, some kind of effort. Certainly now it is questionable as to whether that effort would come under the banner of the Democratic Party," McKinney said. Hmmm ... We noted some months ago that McKinney is still raising money to retire supposed campaign debts, despite having an officially registered surplus.

Romney, Matt Lauer Fail To Wear Seatbelts In Interview
Mitt Romney and NBC's Matt Lauer are both apologizing for a recent interview in which the two men drove around New Hampshire without wearing their seatbelts. While it is not currently illegal in New Hampshire, Lauer nevertheless conceded that he set a bad example given his recent tough questions to New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine (D), who was seriously injured after not buckling up. Romney said in a statement, "Sometimes I forget to wear my seat belt. For my own safety, I need to keep reminding myself to buckle up."

New Hampshire Senate To Vote Today On Controversial Measure...
The New Hampshire State Senate will hold what is expected to be a close vote on a measure to outlaw not wearing a seatbelt. They are the last state that doesn't require seatbelt usage, some of the bill's backers are not optimistic about the vote. "There is a sense of sadness that lives will be lost and horrifying injuries will be incurred because as a culture, we continue to sort of accept the irrationality of the argument that it's my right to do something profoundly irresponsible," said state Senator Peter Burling (D). "It's nuts."

Dodd, Richardson To Join Boycott Of Fox Debate
Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have announced that they will not attend the Fox News/Congressional Black Caucus Institute debate, joining Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards in their boycott of the conservative channel's proposed debate. The only Democrats to RSVP in the affirmative have been Joe Biden and Dennis Kucinich. Question: Will Fox go ahead with this anyway, with only those two (and maybe Mike Gravel) just to publicly shame the majority of Democrats who didn't show up?

Obama Versus McCain
Don't miss the latest in their ongoing -- and very entertaining -- slugfest.

Times Didn't Disclose That Gerth Is Married To Adviser To Hillary Opponent
Garance Franke-Ruta has a very nice catch: Turns out that The New York Times ran a huge excerpt from the new book critical of Hillary by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta without telling its readers that Gerth is married to an adviser to Chris Dodd. As a Democratic Primary opponent of Hillary, Dodd — and Gerth's wife — would seem to have an interest in seeing Hillary damaged. The tie was disclosed in the book, but Times readers would of course have no way of knowing that — or about the potential conflict of interest.

Gerth/Van Natta Book's Phantom Source
And speaking of the Gerth/Van Natta book,