Poll: Hillary And Rudy Lead, F. Thompson In Third
A new AP-Ipsos poll shows Hillary Clinton leading on the Democratic side nationally with 33%, followed by Barack Obama at 21%, non-candidate Al Gore at 20%, and John Edwards with 12%. Among Republicans Rudy Giuliani has 27%, John McCain 19%, Fred Thompson 17%, and Mitt Romney 10%.

Thompson Campaign And Iowa GOPer Meeting About Straw Poll
Aides to Fred Thompson are reportedly meeting in Washington today with Iowa GOP chair Chuck Laudner, where they will discuss whether or not the former Senator will compete in the August straw poll. If Thompson competes, it could breathe new life into an event whose significance could have been effectively over, thanks to the pullouts by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.

Edwards Campaign Stands By Support From Danny Glover
Edwards spokesman Eric Schultz has responded to any controversy about Edwards' campaign appearances with actor Danny Glover, who is a vocal supporter of Hugo Chavez. Schultz says, "John Edwards does not have to agree with someone on every issue to stand with them on the ones that he does. Danny Glover and John Edwards agree that workers need rights, 37 million people in this country should not live in poverty and we need real universal health care. Just like John Edwards has nothing to do with Lethal Weapon movies 1-4, he also has nothing to do with Hugo Chavez."

Poll: Nearly Half Of Americans Know About John Edwards' $400 Haircut
For the sake of comparison, guess how that stacks up against the percentage of Americans who know that Saddam didn't have WMDs? The startling numbers on both are here.

Martinez Hits Rudy And Romney On Immigration
Senator Mel Martinez (R-FL), the Republican National Committee chairman, is publicly criticizing two of his party's presidential candidates, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney, over their opposition to the stalled immigration bill, saying "They're wrong in just criticizing" the measure and not offering their own solutions. Martinez also worries about the GOP's fortunes if the party continues to alienate Hispanic voters. "We paid a political price in the last election cycle," Martinez said. "If we get the same type of Hispanic support in the next election cycle than we did in the last, there's no way we could elect a Republican president."

McCain: Immigration Bill Failure A Win For The Status Quo
John McCain told an Iowa crowd that the Senate's failure to move ahead with an immigration ultimately means that the current situation — of unprotected borders and unenforced laws — will continue as usual. "Well, my friends, because we didn't [pass immigration reform], then, as I said, several hundred people will cross the Arizona border today and into Arizona and go around the country, and several hundred tomorrow and then the next day," McCain said.

Richardson Condemns Failure Of Immigration Bill
Bill Richardson, who had opposed the immigration bill due to the nature of the guest-worker program among other reasons, put out a statement hitting the Senate for failing to pass an amended version. "The collapse of this important legislation demonstrates a tragic breakdown of lawmakers' ability to build compromise and the President's ability to work with Congress to get things done..." Richardson said. "We need an immigration plan that secures our borders, creates a tough but fair path to legalization for those already here, penalizes employers who knowingly hire illegal workers, makes families the priority, and engages Mexico to help work with us to solve this problem."

New Hampshire On Verge Of Making Abortion Law History
New Hampshire is poised to become the first state ever to repeal a law requiring parental notification for minors getting an abortion. The state Senate has just voted 15-9 for the repeal, following the House vote of 226-130 for repeal. Democratic Governor John Lynch has indicated he will sign it. The law was passed about four years ago, and has never been enforced due to a court challenge.

Richardson Applauds Judge In Paris Hilton Case
Bill Richardson and Mothers Against Drunk Driving CEO Chuck Hurley have written a letter to Los Angeles County Superior Court Judge Michael T. Sauer, thanking him for sending Paris Hilton to jail. "Early release from prison sends the message that drunk driving is acceptable, but we are also concerned that the early release of any drunk driver – high profile or not – poses a risk to the general public," they wrote. They also called for the wider adoption of a law that Richardson signed in New Mexico, calling for the installation of ignition interlocks for convicted drunk drivers. Ignition interlocks are breathalyzer devices installed into cars, and only enable the ignition if the driver first passes the sobriety test.

Gingrich: GOP Nominee Must Break Sharply With Bush
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich said today that any nominated for the Republican ticket will have to break sharply with the Bush Administration: "If the Republicans run a stand-pat presidential candidate who ends up being on defense for all of September and October and who is seen by the country as representing four more years, the fact is that Republicans are not going to" win, Gingrich told the American Enterprise Institute.

Brownback to Romney: I'll Fight In The Straw Poll
Sam Brownback warned Mitt Romney today that he can expect a fight in the Ames straw poll this August even though frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have said they won't participate. "This is not a coronation," Brownback said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.

Immigration Deal Not Dead, According To Senate Dealmakers
The Senators that negotiated the bipartisan immigration deal held a press conference this morning to let everyone know they are trying to resuscitate the flagging legislation.

Fred Thompson Schedules First South Carolina Visit
Fred Thompson will be headed to South Carolina on June 27, for a state Republican Party fundraiser. At least 200 people are expected to attend, at a minimum donation of $50 each.

Richardson Shadows Average Man To Experience Normal Life
Bill Richardson went to the home of single dad, social worker and average Joe Mark Fitzgerald yesterday as part of an effort to court the gigantic Service Employees International Union, which has made the visits a prerequisite of its endorsement for the Democratic presidential nomination. The AP reports that "Fitzgerald joked that the baby didn't throw any food at Richardson so that was good."

Wyoming U.S. Attorney Resigns, Rumored To Be Seeking Thomas' Senate Seat
U.S. Attorney for Wyoming Matthew Mead has submitted his resignation, effective immediately. The Washington Post's Paul Kane speculates that Mead may try to put himself in the running for the seat of the late Sen. Craig Thomas (R-WY), who died of leukemia early this week.

Marchand Will Quit NH Senate Race If Shaheen Runs
In New Hampshire, Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand says he will quit his campaign for the Senate if former Governor Jeanne Shaheen gets in the race, as some high-ranking Dems are trying to recruit her to do.

John Edwards: I've "Never Heard Of PETA" — Opposes Vegetarian Agenda
At a campaign stop in a New Hampshire bookstore, John Edwards was asked a question about animal-rights group PETA, People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals. "I can honestly say I have never heard of PETA," said Edwards. "They don't want people to eat meat? Well I am not in favor of that."

Here's some cheery news for a Friday. Buried in the new Fox News poll is a startling number that doesn't reflect terribly well on the priorities of our political media:

From the new Fox poll of registered voters:

32. Do you happen to know which presidential candidate has been in the news recently for paying four hundred dollars for a haircut?

Edwards 44%
Hillary 2%
Obama 1%
Other 1%
Don't know 53%

So astonishingly, nearly half of respondents knew about Edwards' haircut and were able to volunteer his name off the top of their heads, as it were.

So just for the fun of it, we went and dug up the most recent poll we could find on the question of whether people know that Saddam didn't have WMDs.

Read more »

Rudy Giuliani is now slamming John Edwards and other Dems for their "liberal mindset" on terrorism and their misunderstanding of the terror threat.

But as recently as last month, Giuliani agreed with one of Edwards' fundamental points: The uselessness of the phrase "war on terror."

From CNN,

In a piece that is likely to generate some chatter in campaign circles, The New York Times has a long look at the Edwards campaign coming in this Sunday's magazine. The piece, which has just gone up online, argues that the Edwards campaign is "joyless" and is hampered by a sense that the campaign is little more than a vehicle for him to discuss his signature issue of poverty.

"Everything else in the campaign, Edwards seems to think, all these carefully orchestrated photo ops and drop-bys and van rides with the media, is the kind of empty political theater from which he declared himself liberated after his last presidential run," writer Matt Bai opines. "He gives the impression that he simply endures it."

More nuggets from the article as we find them.

Fred Thompson's planning his first New Hampshire event.

According to The New Hampshire Union Leader: "Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson will make his first visit to New Hampshire as a potential presidential candidate later this month, a high-ranking Republican says."

Thompson has apparently agreed to appear at a June 28 fund-raiser in Bedford for the state Senate Republican PAC.

As noted below, Rudy attacked John Edwards over terrorism today, hitting the Dem for the speech he gave yesterday unveiling his anti-terror policies.

But before getting too caught up in the politics of this, it's important to note that Rudy is making a substantive argument about terrorism that -- as absurdly simplistic as it is -- needs to be rebutted.

Rudy:

"We are not in a war, where the root cause of this war is poverty. Bin Laden comes from one of the richest families in the world," Giuliani added. "Mohamed Atta, who was the guy principally responsible for 9/11 was based in Germany and he was well educated. I don't think he was exactly drinking dirty water. And the reality is, is that [Dems] are coming at it from their liberal mindset of what must cause crime and they are not wrong about that. But terrorism is not caused by poverty. The Islamic terrorist movement, the root cause of it has to do with ideology and a perversion of religion, an idea that they are intolerant of the way we live. And to be a leader, if you lack clarity it is very very dangerous."

The Rudy game plan here, we think, is to refight the war with liberalism he fought over crime in New York City in the 1990s.

Read more »

"If George Bush came up with motherhood and apple pie, people would be against it."

-- Republican New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, quoted by The Politicker, commenting on the President's unpopularity today.

Okay, this is getting interesting -- the Rudy Giuliani vs. John Edwards war is heating up today.

Rudy just appeared on a radio show and blasted Edwards over the Dem's speech on terrorism yesterday. Rudy:

"He's gonna restructure the military, which I guess means new uniforms, he's gonna rely on proven methods of intelligence gathering, which I imagine nobody else would rely on," said Giuliani on the Dennis Miller Radio Show today.

"He's gonna hold, catch this one, hold regular meetings with military leaders, I guess no president has ever done that before, I recall seeing lots of pictures of presidents holding meetings with military leaders."

You probably were aware that Rudy was being sarcastic there. Rudy also said a few other things about how Edwards' take on terror is a reflection of his "liberal mindset."

In response, the Edwards campaign continued tying Rudy to Bush:

"Sounds like Karl Rove is writing Rudy Giuliani's script these days -- all fear and no substance. If voters want four more years of George W. Bush's disastrous foreign policy, which has left us with more terrorists and fewer allies, then Giuliani is the guy. But if Americans want a smart, mission-focused approach to shutting down terrorists and keeping America safe, John Edwards is their next commander-in-chief."

The "more terrorists and fewer allies" is a good formulation, and describing Rudy as being willing to continue Bush's war seems sound enough. But the Edwards camp probably will need to respond to some of the substance of Rudy's attack in a bit more detail if this continues, rather than letting him frame the discussion about Edwards' views.

Meanwhile, worth noting: The back and forth probably benefits both candidates by boosting them with their respective primary electorates, which is probably why both sides are happy to play this game.

Some interesting new poll numbers from Gallup suggest that the 2008 Presidential election will be all about Iraq -- and that candidates who favor withdrawal timetables may head into the general election with a sizeable advantage over the pro-war candidates.

The Gallup survey finds that an astonishing 75% -- that would be three out of four voters -- say that the Iraq War will be "extremely" or "very" important in determining their vote.

Memo to Chuck Schumer: These numbers would seem to suggest that you may have been mistaken when you asserted recently that the 2008 elections wouldn't turn on Iraq.

The poll also finds that 58% of overall respondents -- and 61% of independents -- say they're "more likely" to vote for a candidate who "only supports legislation on the war that includes a timetable for removing U.S. troops from Iraq." Only 36% say they're "less likely" to vote for someone who only supports such legislation. (Interestingly, the cutting off funding option is overwhelmingly opposed in the poll.)

Memo to Rudy Giuliani: If these numbers are any indication, John Edwards may have been right yesterday when he said yesterday that you would "never be President" if you continued embracing George Bush's policies.

Only a small minority of Dems agree with Hillary's contention that we are safer today than we were before 9/11, if a new poll is to be believed.

The question of whether we're safer has emerged as a central sticking point in the Democratic Primary, with Barack Obama and John Edwards both taking on Hillary over the issue by arguing that we're not safer. The Clinton campaign has countered that we are indeed safer thanks to domestic security efforts, and her spokesperson, Howard Wolfson, has even argued that the "vast majority" of Democratic primary voters, and even of Americans in general, agree with Hillary.

Not so, according to this new Rasmussen poll. It finds that only 29% of Democrats, and only 48% of Americans overall, believe this.

McCain Losing Some Support To Thompson
The Washington Post has a story about how some of John McCain's supporters could defect to Fred Thompson, focusing on Washington lawyer John Dowd, who has been a McCain supporter ever since representing him during the Keating Five scandal. Mitt Romney has also lost some supporters to Thompson, but that has come mainly out of Thompson's home state of Tennessee.

Thompson Campaign: Over $350,000 In First 48 Hours
Ryan Sager reports that Fred Thompson's nascent campaign has announced that in the first 48 hours after launching their www.imwithfred.com Web site, the "testing the waters" committee has taken in $352,323.00 from 3,360 contributors.

Giuliani Applauds Failure Of Immigration Bill
Rudy Giuliani released a statement on the immigration bill's stalling. "This bill failed to guarantee a uniform, tamper-proof, biometric identification card, a single nation-wide database of foreigners in our country, and did not mandate the full implementation of a biometric check-in, check-out system," Rudy is quoted. "We can and must guarantee the American people that we know who is coming in and out of our country."

Salazar Holds Out Hope On Immigration
The Senate failed a key cloture vote on immigration legislation yesterday and although Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) said he will let the bill come back to the floor, most have declared its fundamental compromise itself now compromised by a vote that put a sunset on the guest worker program. The parties have already started to heap the blame on each other. Sen. Ken Salazar (D-CO) holds out hope: "No, it's not dead. Defeat is not an option," Salazar said.

Obama Donates Money From Indicted Pizza King
Barack Obama has donated $16,500 from his campaign to charity — the amount originally donated to his federal campaigns by two business partners of Antoin "Tony" Rezko, owner of a pizza restaurant chain and longtime patron of Illinois Democrats, who is now indicted for influence peddling.

Giuliani Has Most Lobbyist Bundlers
The Politico reports that Rudy Giuliani has accepted bundled contributions from 20 Washington lobbyists, despite campaigning as a Washington outsider. That is more than John McCain, who has 12, and Hillary Clinton, with 6.

Biden Late to Debate He Organized
Joe Biden had been calling on other candidates to join him in an Iraq debate for the past few weeks, and he finally got his wish when Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich gathered with him at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. Biden, however, was stuck on Capital Hill duking it out over the immigration bill, and arrived an hour late to the 90 minute debate.

Romney Leads In Another New Hampshire Poll
A new poll from Franklin Pierce College has Mitt Romney leading the Republican pack in New Hampshire with 28%. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain are statistically tied for second, with 18% for Rudy and 17% for McCain.

Clinton Tries to Draw Yuppies, Ends Up With Boomers
Hillary Clinton threw a party in a Washington, D.C. parking lot dubbed "Club 44" aimed at young people. The event, advertised as an event where you should "wear your jeans," featured American Idol runner-up Katherine McPhee. The Republican National Committee was there too and quoted McPhee as saying, "That was kind of lame, I have to say."

Conservative Group Attacks Joe Scarborough
Concerned Women for America president Wendy Wright is lambasting MSNBC host Joe Scarborough for jokingly speculating on whether or not Fred Thompson's wife Jeri "works the pole." "Joe Scarborough’s banter reduces an accomplished and respectable woman to a 'bimbo' and reflects attempts to mainstream porn into everyday culture," said Wright. A spokesman for MSNBC said the outrage was "another example of a statement being taken out of context in the blogosphere." In an earlier segment on that show, Scarborough had discussed pole-dancing as a fitness routine, and talked about the subject with a female triathlete.

Alabama GOP State Senator Hits Fellow Lawmaker On Chamber Floor
In Alabama, Republican State Senator Charles Bishop punched Democratic Senator Lowell Barron during a heated argument about a matter of legislation. Bishop is unrepentant, claiming Barron called him a "son of a bitch." "I responded with my right hand," Barron said. "I hit him wherever I could get my right hand on him." And while Bishop apologized for the violence taking place on the Senate floor, he did not apologize for the punch itself: "If he calls me that again, it will happen again."

Iowa GOPer: Straw Poll Pullout "A Kick In The Shins, Or A Little Higher"
Iowa Republican Party executive director Chuck Laudner is not happy with the decisions by Rudy Giuliani and John McCain to withdraw from this August's Iowa straw poll. "This event helps us pay for Caucus Night and all those activities, plus it helps us fund our state house and senate races," Lauder told Radio Iowa. Laudner went even further, characterizing the pullouts as "a kick in the shins, or a little higher, right to the Iowa Republican Party."

Rudy Camp To Edwards: You're A Loser
Ben Smith was able to get a comment from the Rudy Giuliani campaign, regarding John Edwards' warning that Rudy would "never be president" if he continued to embrace the Bush foreign policy record. Rudy spokeswoman Katie Levinson: "John Edwards' track record of predicting election outcomes speaks for itself."

John Edwards Forced To Comment On Paris Hilton
A reporter asked John Edwards his opinion on Paris Hilton's early release from jail. His answer: "Um, I’m gonna stay out of the Paris Hilton story. (Edwards laughs.) Although I saw it seems to be completely dominating the news, I had the television on just before I came down. Uh, I still do believe, without regard to Paris Hilton, that, uh, we have two Americas and I think what’s important is, it’s obvious that the problem exists."

No Cloture on Immigration Bill, More Debate
Saying that more Republican amendments should reach the floor, Republican backers sided with the rest of their party to soundly block cloture, with only 33 votes in favor. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the bill has limited time left on the floor.

S.C. County Chairman Quits McCain Campaign Over Immigration
John McCain’s Aiken County South Carolina chairman, David Nix, said he is leaving the campaign because of McCain's support for the immigration bill before Congress: "There is a very wide gulf between what I believe as a conservative South Carolina Republican and what Senator McCain is pushing for with this bill. It is an extremely weighty matter," Nix said.

Fox News Poll: Hillary Is Likable — But Not As Much As Others
Despite her reputation for being divisive, 56% of respondents in the latest Fox News poll think Hillary Clinton is likable, compared to only 41% who say she isn't. On the other hand, all the candidates score better than that, topped off by Barack Obama's 76%-13%. And a sign for possible worry: Hillary is seen as "honest and trustworthy" by only a 47%-45% margin. But then again, Hillary has been dragged through several nationally-watched general election campaigns, with all the mud that came with them — while the others haven't had to endure that sort of test. Hillary leads the Dem field overall with 36%, followed by Obama at 23%, non-candidate Al Gore with 14%, and John Edwards at 12%. Without Gore, the race becomes Hillary 41%, Obama 26%, Edwards 15%.

Poll: Edwards Barely Ahead In Home State
A new poll by Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling shows John Edwards with a narrow lead in his home state of North Carolina. Edwards has 30% of the Democratic primary vote, followed by Hillary Clinton's 26%, and Barack Obama at 22%.

Romney Disparages Long-Term Iraq Presence
Mitt Romney said today he does not support a large permanent U.S. presence in Iraq. "Our objective would not be a Korea-type setting with 25-50,000 troops on a near permanent basis remaining in bases in Iraq," Romney said. "I think we would hope to turn Iraq security over to their own military and their own security forces, and if presence in the region is important for us than we have other options that are nearby."

House Passes Stem-Cell Research Bill
The House of Representatives voted 247-176 to increase funding for embryonic stem-cell research. The Senate has already okayed the bill, setting the course for the bill to be delivered to President Bush. The Hill notes that President Bush is widely expected to veto it, as he did on a similar measure last year. This new version also included funding for research into finding methods that could yield embryonic-like stem cells without actually killing embryos.

Poll: Americans Lean Dem By Wide Margin
The new AP-Ipsos poll has a fascinating number. Respondents were asked they identified as Democrats, Republicans or independents, and then independents were asked which way they lean. With leaners, 54% of Americans are Democrats, compared to only 36% Republicans — an almost 20-point Dem margin. This is likely a product of recent Washington scandals and mishandling of foreign affairs by Republicans, but it could very well turn into a full-fledged political realignment if the Democrats can sustain it.

In Nebraska, Hagel Challenger Declares
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning (R) has formally kicked off his campaign for Senate against Chuck Hagel. Bruning will base his campaign on opposition to Hagel's votes against the Bush Administration on the Iraq War — a sort of "Mirror, Mirror" version of the Ned Lamont campaign. "Nebraskans want a leader who will stand with our troops and military commanders, who will enforce our laws and secure our borders," Bruning said in his campaign announcement.

Romney Internal Poll Shows Him With 17 Lead
The survey of likely caucus-goers taken at the end of last month shows Romney with a commanding lead over his rivals, including McCain, 17 points behind, who was likely hurt by his immigration proposal, and Giuliani, 20 points behind, who was likely hurt by Fred Thompson's entry into the race.

Reid: Tim Johnson Will Be Back By September
Sen. Tim Johnson (D-SD) is due back in the Senate by September at the latest, according to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. "We are letting his doctors take the lead. He's getting stronger and stronger every day, but we don't have a definitive date," said Julianne Fisher, Johnson's spokeswoman. The Senator has reportedly recovered 90 percent of his speech ability.

Florida Representatives Join Hillary
Debbie Wasserman Shultz and Alcee Hastings, both Representatives from Florida, have joined Hillary Clinton's campaign as co-chairs.

In New Hampshire, Ex-Astronaut Officially Launches Senate Bid
Dartmouth medical professor and former astronaut Jay Buckey has officially declared his candidacy for the Senate in New Hampshire. Buckey opened campaign office in Lebanon, New Hampshire, and has hired Lebanon City councilor Karen Liot to be his campaign manager. Buckey acknowledged his outsider, first-time candidate status, but is not deterred: "If our system is at a point where you have to be either politically connected or well financed to be successful in this field, then we're in more trouble than I thought."

Longshot Tommy Thompson's Plan Thrown Off By Rudy/McCain Ames Pullout
Tommy Thompson's campaign plan has been built around visiting Iowa at least once every week, and hoping to break through with a strong showing the Iowa straw poll. But with both Rudy Giuliani and John McCain have pulling out out — rendering the event practically meaningless — Thompson says, "Now that they're not in, it doesn't have as much value, unless I can turn it into something. And that's what I'm still thinking about."

Big Shocker: Tancredo Won't Attend Spanish-Language Debate
"I can say with 100 percent certainty that we will not be attending," Tancredo spokesman Alan Moore told The Miami Herald, regarding a Spanish-language debate being held by Univision. Only Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson have accepted the invitation — they're the only ones who speak Spanish. Translators would be allowed at the debate, but one has to think that Spanish-speakers would have a natural advantage with the audience.

A new Fox News poll offers some interesting stats on the Presidential race. First of all, Hillary Clinton continues to lead the Dem field with 36%, Barack Obama 23%, non-candidate Al Gore at 14%, and actual candidate John Edwards with 12%. Without Gore, the race becomes Hillary 41%, Obama 26%, Edwards 15%. On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani has 22%, John McCain 15%, Fred Thompson 13%, and Mitt Romney 10%.

Then come the general election horse-race numbers. Note that Hillary and Obama seem to do equally well against the Republicans in the match-ups we're shown here:

Giuliani (R) 45%, Clinton (D) 42%
Giuliani (R) 46%, Obama (D) 41%
Clinton (D) 43%, McCain (R) 43%
Clinton (D) 46%, Romney (R) 36%
Clinton (D) 48%, F. Thompson (R) 38%
Obama (D) 47%, F. Thompson (R) 34%

Another number: Despite her reputation for being divisive, 56% of respondents think Hillary Clinton is likable, compared to only 41% who say she isn't. On the other hand, all the candidates score better than that, topped off by Barack Obama's 76%-13%. And a sign for possible worry: Hillary is seen as "honest and trustworthy" by only a 47%-45% margin. But then again, Hillary has been dragged through several general election campaigns' worth of mud — while the others haven't had to endure that sort of acid test.

In a possible sign of more concern in the Hillary campaign about Iowa, her national campaign co-chair, Tom Vilsack, is meeting privately in New York next week with the Hillary camp's top fundraisers, according to an internal campaign message that went out to big Hillary contributors.

A source has forwarded us the invite that went out to her "Hillraisers," or people who are committed to raising more than $25,000 for Hillary, a few days ago:

You are cordially invited to a special HillRaisers briefing with

Governor Tom Vilsack

Hillary for President National Campaign Co-Chair

Monday, June 11, 2007

12.00PM – 1.30PM

New York City

Exact location will be provided upon RSVP

One possible reason for the gathering -- though this is speculation -- could be that Vilsack's coming to New York to carry the message that Hillary's got a tough race on her hands in Iowa. She's trailing in the state in many polls.

Such a message would remind her fundraisers that their support will be critical to her efforts to win the state, perhaps prodding them to ratchet up their fundraising efforts on her behalf. The Hillary and Obama campaigns are feverishly raising money in hopes of outdoing each other when the next round of fundraising numbers are released.

On the other hand, Vilsack is her national campaign co-chair, so the meeting needn't necessarily be purely Iowa-related.

Still, last month, Vilsack did tell a private gathering of donors that the Hillary campaign is "not winning" in Iowa.

New Pew poll out today: Approval of Congress has slipped from 39% in January to 34% today.

New Fox News poll, also out today: Approval of Congress has slipped from 32% in January to 29 percent.

One very interesting footnote: In the Fox poll, less Democrats than Republicans approve of the Dem-Controlled Congress, 28%-33%. Could that be because of Congress' failure thus far to stall the Iraq war?

Another interesting moment from John Edwards' press conference after his terrorism speech today. Check out how tightly Edwards -- responding to a question -- yoked Rudy to our sinking President:

"If Mayor Giuliani believes that what President Bush has done is good, and wants to embrace it and run a campaign for the Presidency saying, 'I will give you four more years of what this president has given you,' then he’s allowed to do that. He’ll never be elected President of the United States, but he’s allowed to do that."

Simple as simple can be.

Ben Smith comments: "it's particularly nice for Edwards to be exchanging blows with the Republican frontrunner." It's also nice to see someone express so neatly the astonishing juxtaposition between (a) the extent to which Bush is disliked by America; and (b) the tight and never-ending embrace of his policies by the GOP candidates.

An interesting moment at the press conference John Edwards just held following a speech he gave today on terrorism. Edwards said:

"It doesn't help, by the way, that the Republican presidential candidates seem intent on trying to one up each other, each of them trying to become a bigger, badder George Bush. I think they want to become George Bush on steroids. I hope that they and all the candidates, both Democratic and Republican, will direct their attention to offering real plans for stopping terrorism, instead of just political rhetoric."

"George Bush on steroids" -- thanks for the image, John! Also note the apparent shot at his Dem rivals.

This is interesting: The publishers of the new book about Hillary by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta that hits stores tomorrow are promoting what may be the book's shakiest assertion as its top revelation.

Here's a chunk of the full-page-ad running in today's New York Times about the book:

Box added. As you can see, the publishers are promoting the following at the top of the list of the book's revelations:

Previously undisclosed details about the Clintons' multi-decade plan for power -- including 8 years in the White House for Bill and 8 years for Hillary

Here's why this is interesting: The notion that the Clintons secretly plotted two terms each for both Bill and Hillary may be on shakier ground than perhaps any other key fact in the book. It's already been directly disputed by the only person who supposedly knew about this straight from Bill -- respected historian Taylor Branch. What's more, it's directly contradicted by Carl Bernstein's reporting in his own Hillary book, which is also just out.

Yet here the publisher is using it as the book's lead selling point.

This reminds us yet again of one of the real problems with books like this: Reporters who ink big book deals are under tremendous pressure to deliver a big "get" that will help the publisher promote the heck out of the book. Whatever happened in this particular case, it's obvious that this pressure in general gives reporters an incentive to do less, rather than more, to nail down whether a revelation such as this one -- which is based on less-than-impeccable sourcing -- is actually true or not.

Take a look at this: It's a chunk of the full-page-ad running in today's New York Times about Her Way, the new book about Hillary by Jeff Gerth and Don Van Natta that hits stores tomorrow.

As you can see, the publishers are promoting the following as the book's key revelation:

Previously undisclosed details about the Clintons' multi-decade plan for power -- including 8 years in the White House for Bill and 8 years for Hillary

Here's why this is interesting: The notion that the Clintons' planned two terms for both Bill and Hillary is on very shaky ground -- perhaps more than any other fact in the book. It's already been directly disputed by the one primary witness who supposedly was told this by Bill -- respected historian Taylor Branch. What's more, it's directly contradicted by Carl Bernstein's reporting in his own Hillary book, which is also just out.

And finally, in response to Branch's denial, one of the book's own authors, Don Van Natta, denied in an interview that the eight-years-each plan was one of the book's central revelations. Yet here the publisher is using it as the book's lead selling point.

"Today, we know two unequivocal truths about the results of Bush's approach -- there are more terrorists and we have fewer allies."

-- John Edwards. The quote is from advance excerpts of a speech that Edwards will deliver today on terrorism, in which he'll argue that contra Hillary we are less safe today than we were before 9/11. More excerpts from the speech after the jump.

Read more »

New Associated Press/Ipsos poll:

Public approval of the job President Bush is doing now matches its all-time low, with widespread discontent over how he is handling the war in Iraq, efforts against terrorism and domestic issues, an AP-Ipsos poll released Thursday said.

Only 32 percent said they were satisfied with how Bush is handling his job, the same low point the measure hit last January.

Barely one in five think the country's heading in the right direction -- the worst in AP polling since December 2003.

Joe Klein has been willing at times to respond to our questions before, so we're posting this in hopes of getting an answer to a question about his new column attacking liberal bloggers.

In the column -- which is a broad attack on the liberal blogosphere as allegedly "bullying" and "intolerant" and is already stirring a backlash -- Klein refers to largely unnamed liberal bloggers as "extreme" or "extremists."

This is interesting, and here's why. Not long ago Klein did a post defining what he views as left wing extremism. In it, he wrote that left wing extremists hold "many, but not necessarily all" of a whole list of views.

So we wanted to ask this of Klein in light of today's column labeling unnamed lib bloggers as "extremists."

Can he name three prominent and/or influential liberal bloggers who are "extremists" by his own definition of the term -- that is, who hold many but not all of those views he laid out?

And if he doesn't want to or can't, how can he claim that the column is anything but, well, complete fiction? How can he defend writing it at all? And how does he square it with his own professed disdain for people who traffic in "all opinion and very little information"?

Though we obviously don't think much of attacks such as the one in this week's column, we do think it's a good thing that he's been willing to engage with the blogosphere to some extent.

So we're hoping he'll do it again here, and we'll let you know if or when he answers.

Update: Edited slightly from original.

Romney Camp: We've Already Won The Iowa Straw Poll
Romney campaign spokesman Kevin Madden put out a press release declaring victory in the Iowa straw poll, after Rudy Giuliani and John McCain announced that they were pulling out. "Campaigns that have decided to abandon Ames are likely doing so out of a recognition that their organizations are outmatched and their message falls flat with Republican voters in Iowa," Madden wrote. "It looks as if we just beat those campaigns in Iowa two months earlier than we had planned on beating them."

Clinton Fundraising Rocky At Times
The New York Times reports on confidential documents that show fundraisers for Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign have at times slipped under even the lowest expectations, likely the result of a battle with top rival Barack Obama for Democratic funds.

McCain Advisor: I Will Quit If Dems Nominate Obama
Mark McKinnon, a former Democrat and now senior media advisor to John McCain, wrote a memo saying he would leave the campaign if Barack Obama wins the Democratic presidential nomination. McKinnon wrote that he disagrees with Obama's policies but may have been inspired by his biography, and the potential of an Obama presidency to change the country's image.

Edwards Speaking Today on Terrorism
John Edwards is set to deliver a speech today in New York City, where he will say that President Bush has created "more terrorists" and his own anti-terror strategy would "shut down terrorists". "Today, we know two unequivocal truths about the results of Bush's approach — there are more terrorists and we have fewer allies," he will say according to prepared remarks.

Quinnipiac: Fred Thompson Places Distant Second To Rudy In Florida
A new Quinnipiac poll shows Rudy Giuliani continuing to dominate the GOP field in Florida with 31%. However, Fred Thompson has moved into a distant second place with 14%, followed by by John McCain at 10%. Thompson now leads candidates who have been running a lot longer than he has. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has 34%, Barack Obama 16%, non-candidate Al Gore 13%, and John Edwards 11%.

Rudy To Unveil Health Plan
Rudy Giuliani's health plan will reportedly involve moving people away from employer-based health insurance, and transition people into being players in an individual-based insurance market. Giuliani's plan would not end employer-based insurance, but would provide incentives for individuals to seek out their own health plans.

Graham Attacks Obama in Senate
Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) criticized an amendment championed by Barack Obama that would make it easier for immigrants to sponsor family members as one that would prevent the bill's passage and cause difficulty for Republicans who have supported it. "When you're out on the campaign trail, my friend, tell them about why we can't come together. This is why," Graham said.

Huckabee Wants More Debate On Education
Mike Huckabee, who spent a considerable portion of the last debate being asked about his disbelief in evolution, says there should be more discussion about education issues in the debates instead. "I don't see a lot of people sitting around their kitchen tables wondering what the next president will do about teaching evolution in school, but the entire issue of education should have been addressed," Huckabee said.

Richardson: I Shot An Oryx
Bill Richardson tells the Associated Press that he is a recreational hunter and has snagged an elk and an oryx, a long-haired antelope — though he prefers avian prey: "You know I'm a little impatient and when you're doing oryx and elk, you tend to get one or two shots. You've got to find them. But with dove, you have a lot of opportunities."

Former NH Dem Chair: Draft Shaheen For Senate
Former New Hampshire Democratic chair Kathy Sullivan has launched an effort to draft former Governor Jeanne Shaheen to run for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Republican John Sununu, to whom Shaheen narrowly lost in 2002. "I'd like to see a rematch between Governor Shaheen and John Sununu, and I'd like to see a fair race, which we did not have the last time," Sullivan said, referring to the jamming of phones at Democratic offices on election day 2002. The current Democratic candidates are Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand, college professor and former astronaut Jay Buckey, and longtime Democratic power-broker Katrina Swett — about whom we've commented before.

Sullivan: Kick Gravel Off The Island
Kathy Sullivan has also offered her take on the Democratic debates. "I believe that going forward the networks should politely dis-invite Mr. Gravel. He just detracts from the time from the other candidates," she said. "He's not a serious candidate." And regarding Chris Dodd's ire against Wolf Blitzer, Sullivan said, "I think Chris Dodd's campaign has every right to be extremely angry at how Wolf Blitzer did not call on Chris Dodd until 25 minutes in the debate. What made it worse was that Blitzer went back to some of the candidates several times before he went to Dodd."

West Virginia GOP Result Could Influence Country On February 5
The Hill notes that the West Virginia Republican Party's choice of method for picking their presidential delegates — a single state convention held on February 5 — could lead to the result being announced as early as 2:30 p.m. ET that day. And with voting going on throughout the country on the de facto national primary day, a mid-day victory could boost that candidate in all the other states.

LaHood May Resign To Head College
Congressman Ray LaHood (R-IL) is considering resigning from Congress to become president of Bradley University in Peoria, Illinois, his alma mater. LaHood said he will make his decision in "ten days to two weeks." A special election for his seat could potentially be competitive, though the district does have a definite Republican lean.

Duckworth Considering Another Congressional Bid
2006 Congressional nominee Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) is considering a rematch against GOP Congressman Peter Roskam, who defeated her 51%-49% in the open-seat race. However, as Roll Call notes that Duckworth could be weakened by continued discord between the Democratic establishment and the local activists, who backed Christine Cegelis in the primary last year. "For a Democrat to win in that area, they’re going to need to heal that tension,” Cegelis said.

Kucinich Holds Hearing on Thermal Expansion of Gasoline
Dennis Kucinich will hold a Congressional hearing tomorrow on how the oil companies account for the lower density of gasoline during hot summer months, in terms of commercial transactions. Thermal expansion is a property of physics.

Novak: Thompson Almost Said He's Pro-Choice
Robert Novak noticed something else funny about Fred Thompson's interview last night with Sean Hannity: "While endorsing a reversal of Roe v. Wade, Thompson appeared ready to say that he did not approve of criminalizing abortion. Hannity stepped in and interrupted, saving him from a gaffe."

Fox News Versus the Democrats
Some hilarious new developments you won't want to miss.

John Edwards Campaigns With Danny Glover
The right-wingers will eat this one up: John Edwards went campaigning in South Carolina with actor Danny Glover, star of such movies as Lethal Weapon, The Color Purple, and The Royal Tenenbaums. Glover also supports ... Hugo Chavez.

Romney: Thompson Has "Hollywood Aura"
Speaking to a New Hampshire crowd, Mitt Romney said he would welcome the entrance of former Senator Fred Thompson to the race, saying he would bring a "Hollywood aura" to the campaign. We suspect there's a backhanded compliment here — since when was "Hollywood" a good buzz word for national Republican primary voters?

Romney Laments Bush's Damage To U.S. Reputation
"I do think that we have suffered over the past several years for a number of reasons, and I think you probably know what they are..." Mitt Romney said a campaign stop in New Hampshire. "There has been the perception that we have not been as open and participative with other nations as is our normal approach."

Whitehouse Backs Clinton For White House
Freshman Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), whose experience as a former U.S. Attorney has helped raise his profile in light of the current scandals and Judiciary Committee hearings, is supporting Hillary Clinton. "Her smart, tough, experienced leadership will be critically important as we work to bring our troops home from Iraq, reform our health care system to cover more American families, and solve the energy challenges of the 21st century," Whitehouse is quoted in a press release.

Two Polls Have Bad News For Immigration Bill
A new Gallup poll shows that 58% of respondents don't know enough about the immigration bill to form an opinion — but among those who do, it runs 30% opposed to only 11% for it. And Rasmussen finds that given the choice between this bill and no bill at all, 49% back no bill at all, to only 32% for the bill. On a favor/oppose question, the bill gets 23% for to 50% against.

Gingrich: 4-1 Odds Against Me Running
Newt Gingrich has told the Associated Press that he doesn't see an entrance into the presidential race as especially likely for him, saying the odds are "4-1" against it. On the other hand, he still plans to organize workshops in all 99 Iowa counties, and attend this August's straw poll.

Boyda Knows She's Endangered
Roll Call has an interesting write-up on freshman Rep. Nancy Boyda (D-KS), who won an astonishing upset victory over incumbent Congressman Jim Ryun last year. Boyda is working hard to position herself as a centrist, and build connections across the very GOP-leaning district. "In Washington, this race gets a lot of attention, because I have the biggest target on my back," Boyda said. Ryun is mounting a comeback bid, but faces opposition in the primary from State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Jenkins is from the more moderate, socially liberal faction of the Kansas GOP, while Ryun is from its more conservative portion.

Hagel Challenger Set To Announce
Nebraska Attorney General Jon Bruning is set to officially announce tomorrow morning that he will challenge Chuck Hagel from the right in the primary. Bruning has strongly criticized Hagel for his votes against the Bush Administration on the Iraq War.

Tancredo: Immigration Bill Could Destroy GOP — And I'll Make Sure Of It
Declaring that the immigration bill could "destroy the party," Tom Tancredo said on CNN, "it's certainly going to have major ramifications, we’ll put it that way, for the party and it’s sure as heck not going to help the country." Let us remind you, Tancredo's campaign is running an online petition, where signatories pledge to oppose the re-elections of Republican Senators who support the bill. And Tancredo is now scaling back visits to Iowa and New Hampshire in favor of visits to Republican-held districts, where he'll pressure incumbents to vote against the immigration legislation or else he'll work to defeat them in 2008.

Richardson Accepts Invitation To Spanish Debate
Bill Richardson has accepted an invitation from Univision to hold a Spanish-language debate. "I challenge my fellow Democratic candidates to participate in this debate and not to find reasons to avoid it — diversity is a fundamental Democratic issue," Richardson said. They might have some good reasons to avoid it — Richardson and Chris Dodd are the only ones who speak Spanish.

The Fox News comedy gets lower and lower...

As Josh noted earlier, Fox News chief Roger Ailes was quoted today complaining about Dems boycotting the Fox-sponsored debates as follows:

"The candidates that can't face Fox, can't face Al Qaeda. And that's what's coming."

Fun stuff, to be sure. But it gets better.

Now Media Bistro has obtained a clarification of sorts of Ailes' remarks from a Fox spokesperson:

A Fox News spokesperson has further explained his remark: "Mr. Ailes was repeating a comment made to him by many friends of his who are Democrats and are disappointed that their party is not currently debating on Fox."

The Democrats of Ailes' dreams, in more ways than one...

Rudy Giuliani pulled out of the Iowa straw poll today. Now John McCain's following suit, emailing out the following:

"In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forego our participation in the event."

McCain, who skipped Iowa in 2000 and is regarded with suspicion by conservative activists, would almost certainly gotten trounced in the straw poll. Rudy's decision to bail gave McCain the excuse he needed to pull out.

Norman Ornstein, a resident scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, has just published a long paean to the Speaker that's worth a look.

Ornstein argues that the recent lobbying reform stuff actually turned out to be an "impressive victory," and that the House leadership's approach on Iraq -- while a retreat of sorts -- actually represents a sign that she's a very skilled and impressive House Speaker in various ways.

"There are some signs at least of better times ahead for those who love Congress," Ornstein says. "And signs that Nancy Pelosi could be an exceptional Speaker."

We don't agree with some of the specifics of Ornstein's arguments. But we're highlighting his piece for a reason: It obliquely reminds us that ever since Pelosi took power, the basic assumption driving much of the media's coverage of her has been that she was certain to fail.

Read more »

Here's a key moment from last night that has gone entirely unnoticed: GOP Presidential hopeful Fred Thompson, who didn't participate in the debate but was interviewed on Fox News aferwards, dissembled badly about his abortion record to Sean Hannity.

Thompson claimed to Hannity that he's "always" thought Roe v. Wade is "wrong." In fact, he's supported it in the past. More after the jump.

Read more »

The battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over whether Americans are safer than before 9/11 continues simmering today with a front page piece in The New York Times.

Hillary adviser Howard Wolfson tells the paper that the voters agree with her position that we are in fact safer: “I think the vast majority of Democratic primary voters, and Americans, would agree with Senator Clinton. I think most Americans, for instance, would think that air travel is safer today than on Sept. 10.”

One person who doesn't agree: Key centrist Dem Simon Rosenberg, the head of the New Democrat Network. He writes:

"I have to admit that I am not sympathetic to Hillary's position. With DHS a mess, our military degraded, our standing in the world diminished, the Middle East in much greater turmoil than prior to 9/11, terrorism around the world on the rise, Bin Laden still on the loose, Iran moving towards nuclearization, our great ally Israel weakened, international institutions like the UN and the World Bank under assault, climate change ignored, Russia slipping back into an aggressive autocracy.....are we really safer today? Is America and the world really better off as a result of the Bush years?"

Rudy Giuliani will skip the Iowa straw poll in August, the Des Moines Register reports. A GOP candidate hasn't taken a pass on the straw poll and then gone on to win the Iowa caucuses in some three decades.

Apparently the Rudy campaign decided that the $3 million or so it would cost to participate wasn't a smart allocation of resources -- particularly since the upended primary schedule has the Rudy people banking on wins in states like California and Florida.

Marc Ambinder has some details from the conference call that Rudy campaign manager Mike DuHaime just conducted with reporters:

DuHaime noted that this strategy is unconventional, but "the bottom line is, we're going to do what we feel is right." Iowans aren't "going to make their decision based on a non-binding straw poll in August."

Yes, but what about the thousands of activists who attend that the Rudy camp would have been able to cultivate? Rudy's Iowa adviser Jim Nussle says: "When you are Giuliani and you have national name I.D., the straw poll doesn't have the same significance."

Translation: The hero-of-9/11 narrative is so overwhelmingly powerful that the usual political rules don't apply to Rudy. That, in a nutshell, seems to be the campaign's approach on a bunch of fronts. We'll see if it works.