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June 15, 2008 - June 21, 2008

Election Central Saturday Roundup

Obama And McCain's Fundraising Nearly Equal For May
The new fundraising numbers for May show that Barack Obama only took in $21.9 million for the month, just barely ahead of John McCain's $20.9 million. Obama continues to lead in cash on hand by a $43 million to $31.6 million margin, but it's not exactly overwhelming. The real numbers to watch will be June's, after Obama sewed up the Democratic nomination and then opted out of public financing for the general election.

Poll: Obama Leads, But Not Getting A Big Bounce
A new USA Today/Gallup poll gives Barack Obama a 48%-42% lead, not significantly changed from a 47%-43% lead from a month ago. This is contrary to yesterday's Newsweek poll, which showed Obama surging to a 15-point lead over McCain.

Obama And McCain Campaigns Trade Flip-Flop Accusations
The Obama campaign used their conference call with reporters yesterday to go after McCain on oil exploration, taxes and immigration. Meanwhile, the McCain campaign says Obama has changed his position on NAFTA, first to please a protectionist Dem base in the primaries and now to run to the center.

Obama: They're Going To Try To Make You Afraid Of Me
At a Florida fundraiser yesterday, Barack Obama spoke bluntly about the campaign ahead. "They're going to try to make you afraid of me," he told attendees. "He's young and inexperienced and he's got a funny name. And did I mention he's black?"

Hillary Returning To The Senate
Hillary Clinton is set to return to the Senate floor this coming week, the Washington Post reports. The once-inevitable frontrunner will have to deal with two challenges: Becoming just another Senator after being seemingly on track to win the White House -- and carrying around a $22.5 million debt from her campaign.

Veterans To Swift Boat Financier: We Can Prove You Wrong
A group of Vietnam veterans who served with John Kerry have sent a letter to T. Boone Pickens, the main financier of the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, taking him up on his promise to give $1 million to anyone who can prove false a single charge that the Swift Boaters made against John Kerry in 2004. Something tells me the check won't be arriving any time soon.

GOP Rep. Pushing Wacky Tall Tale About Commies Drilling For Oil Off American Shores

Last time we checked in on Rep. "Mean Jean" Schmidt, the Ohio Republican facing a tough challenge from Dem Victoria Wulsin, she was busy demonizing her opponent as someone who conducts grisly scientific experiments on innocent human victims.

Now she's outdoing herself again, spreading a tall tale that even other Republicans know is bogus: The notion that China is supposedly drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

She's pushing this fiction in order to whip up fear about high gas prices and Democrats wanting to sell the country out to the Communists -- a clear effort to boost her base turnout against Wulsin, who nearly beat Schmidt two years ago and very well could unseat her this time around.

Read more »


Poll: Obama Vaults To 15-Point Lead Over McCain

Barack Obama might just be getting his post-primary national bounce. A new poll from Newsweek gives him a 51%-36% lead over John McCain, up from a 46%-46% tie a month ago.

Obama is helped by some key statistics. Five-five percent of respondents now call themselves Democrats or Dem-leaners, compared to only thirty-six percent Republicans and GOP-leaners. With the Democrat-on-Democrat mudslinging out the way, Obama is now able to fully enjoy that wide base of support.

Obama is doing better at this point in the game than John Kerry or Al Gore did before him, an encouraging sign for a Democratic victory. A caveat, though: Obama's lead right now is comparable to Michael Dukakis' lead back when he clinched the nomination, and he went on to lose the election.

Why Obama's Support For FISA Cave-In Is Such A Downer

Here's what's so dispiriting about it. One of the riveting things about Barack Obama's candidacy is that since the outset of the campaign he's seemed absolutely dead serious about changing the way foreign policy is discussed and argued about in this country.

Time and again, in his debates with Hillary, and now with John McCain, his whole debate posture on national security issues was centered on the idea that he could challenge and change what it means to talk "tough." His candidacy has long seemed to embody a conviction that Democrats can win arguments with Republicans about national security -- that if Dems stick to a set of core principles, and forcefully argue for them without blinking, they can and will persuade people that, simply put, they are right and Republicans are wrong.

Obama has done this already in this general election -- repeatedly. And no doubt he will do it again and again and again in the months ahead. Not this time.

To be clear, I'm not even talking about whether opposing this would or wouldn't have carried political peril. It really doesn't matter. Because if there were ever anything that would have tested his operating premise throughout this campaign -- that you can win arguments with Republicans about national security -- it was this legislation. If ever there were anything that deserved to test this premise, it was this legislation.

And this time, he abandoned that premise.


Late Update: Glenn Greenwald, a leading critic of Obama on this, sends me his skeptical take on why he thinks Obama's promise to work on the bill in the Senate doesn't change anything:

"I think we do a grave disservice if we try to convince people that Obama is really going to work to get amnesty out of the bill. Reid is already saying it's just theater -- they know it's going to fail -- it's just a way, Reid said, to let people "express themselves." It's all designed to let Obama say, once he votes for this bill: "Well, I tried to get amnesty out." He's going to vote for amnesty -- and his statement today seals the fate of this bill. Why sugar coat that?"

Obama Backing FISA "Compromise"

Obama's statement on the FISA "compromise" is in, and suffice it to say that it won't make opponents of the Dem cave-in very happy. He's supporting it.

Here's the key part:

"Under this compromise legislation, an important tool in the fight against terrorism will continue, but the President's illegal program of warrantless surveillance will be over. It restores FISA and existing criminal wiretap statutes as the exclusive means to conduct surveillance -- making it clear that the President cannot circumvent the law and disregard the civil liberties of the American people. It also firmly re-establishes basic judicial oversight over all domestic surveillance in the future. It does, however, grant retroactive immunity, and I will work in the Senate to remove this provision so that we can seek full accountability for past offenses. But this compromise guarantees a thorough review by the Inspectors General of our national security agencies to determine what took place in the past, and ensures that there will be accountability going forward. By demanding oversight and accountability, a grassroots movement of Americans has helped yield a bill that is far better than the Protect America Act.

"It is not all that I would want. But given the legitimate threats we face, providing effective intelligence collection tools with appropriate safeguards is too important to delay. So I support the compromise, but do so with a firm pledge that as President, I will carefully monitor the program, review the report by the Inspectors General, and work with the Congress to take any additional steps I deem necessary to protect the lives -- and the liberty -- of the American people."

Full statement after the jump.

Late Update: My take on his decision is here.

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House Dems' Fundraising Email Promises "Strong" Dem Majority -- On Same Day AS FISA Cave

Hmmm. This one isn't great timing, now is it.

On the very same day that the House Dems passed the new FISA cave, Speaker Nancy Pelosi blasted out a fundraising email this afternoon with this...

As Speaker, I can tell you that we need a Democrat in the White House and a strong Democratic majority in Congress to drive change forward. Our June 30th FEC deadline is vital to our success in November. All eyes will be on Democrats' fundraising totals as a measure of our party's unity and strength.I ask that you please help to show our commitment to across-the-board victories this November by making a contribution of $35, $50 or more...

It's just not a good day for House Dems to be asking rank-and-file Dems for money, let alone promising strength. As TPM Reader SM, who forwarded us the email, said of this promise of a "strong" Dem majority:

"All I want is one with a spine."

Poll: Obama Has Big Lead In New Hampshire

A new Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire gives Barack Obama a big lead in this swing state, which went narrowly to George W. Bush in 2000 and then switched to John Kerry in 2004.

The numbers: Obama 50%, McCain 39%. A month ago, Obama had only a 48%-43% edge.

Meanwhile, Rasmussen gives McCain a small lead in Nevada, which voted for Bush twice: McCain 45%, Obama 42%, within the ± 4.5% margin of error.

Obama Spokesman: I Don't Know His Stance On FISA

Barack Obama is keeping his position on the new FISA bill close to the vest -- so close, in fact, that even his aides don't know what it is!

During a conference call this afternoon with reporters, Obama spokesman Robert Gibbs was first asked whether the Obama campaign would schedule time for the candidate to vote in the Senate next week, and how Obama would actually vote on the policy. Gibbs initially said he didn't know about the scheduling, without addressing the main subject.

Later on, another reporter asked specifically about Obama's position. "I better check on that, too," Gibbs said. "I honestly -- that's what I need to work on, as well."

It certainly is striking that Obama is now the leader of the Democratic Party, but he has yet to say anything on such a crucial public issue. Obama has in the past opposed lawsuit immunity for the telecom companies that participated in warrantless wiretapping, but neither he nor his campaign have commented on his position for the latest bill.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

Late Update: Just to clarify, we're not faulting the staffer here for failing to answer the question. The staffer, after all, simply can't make up an answer out of thin air. The larger point at play here is that Obama has yet to provide an answer on a major issue over the last two days.

Late Update: Obama has now taken a position -- in favor of the bill.

Obama's Takeover Of Democratic National Committee Continues

The Obama camp has installed yet another staffer in a high place at the Democratic National Committee.

WaPo has the scoop on the latest: It's operative Brad Woodhouse, who will now join the DNC's communications staff and help coordinate the DNC's message with that of Obama.

The message control that the Obama camp is trying to achieve at the DNC largely eluded John Kerry, whose advisers feuded with the DNC and even tried to muzzle then-DNC chief Terry McAuliffe when he wanted to aggressively attack Bush's war record, or lack thereof.

Woodhouse is close to two top figures in Obamaland, having worked at different times with Obama top advisers Steve Hildebrand and Robert Gibbs.

And Obama's remaking of the Democratic Party in his own image continues apace.

Exclusive: MoveOn To Close Its 527 In Response To Obama's Candidacy

MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson.

MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf.

By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below $50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend.

To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over $5,000.

"This is an affirmation that we, like Senator Obama, believe that this election can be won by ordinary Americans giving small donations," MoveOn spokesperson Ilyse Hogue told me.

Read more »

Did GOP Senator Fake An Ad Showing Him Cozy With Wife?

This is really funny. Did GOP Sen. Norm Coleman, who's in a really tough fight to hold on to his key Minnesota Senate seat, digitally fake an appearance of domesticity between himself and his wife for an ad?

That's what is being said about this new spot -- and the campaign is strongly denying the allegation:

Something does seem to be off here, in terms of the camera perspective on Laurie Coleman, who is known to spend most of her time in California and not Minnesota or D.C. It sure seems like she and Norm were taped from different camera angles. And she's much more brightly lit, with no lighting spillover onto the countertop.

Coleman is in a tough race with Al Franken in this blue state, so it would make sense to pitch him as a regular guy -- and potentially even more damaging if it turned out to be faked.

Coleman's campaign didn't respond to our inquiries, but they did give a statement to the St. Paul Pioneer-Press, promising that Norm and Laurie were in the same kitchen.

"These left-wing, liberal, Al Franken bloggers are as goofy a bunch as I've ever seen," the campaign's spokesperson said. "They've spent the entire morning concocting a conspiracy theory, wasting valuable bandwidth on the Internet."

Still looks kind of fishy to us.

Late Update: Hmm, this might actually be legit. The Coleman campaign has given a right-wing site a short piece of outtake footage from the shoot, which is in much higher quality and lacking the distorted look of the final product.

Obama Sends Key Staffer To Indiana -- Is State Really In Play?

Does the Obama campaign really believe Indiana is in play?

Team Obama has assigned one of its most valued campaign staffers to the state, reports the Indianapolis Star. The staffer, Emily Parcell, was political director for Obama in Iowa, where the Illinois Senator secured a huge win that essentially put him on the path to the nomination.

The Obama campaign says it shows they're taking the state seriously. However, as Taegan Goddard notes, political experts think that the Obama team doesn't really believe this and is merely messing with the minds of the McCain team.

The last two times Indiana went Democratic were during LBJ's 1964 landslide win and FDR's 1936 lopsided win. However, the Obama team is running a general election ad in the state -- the first Dem to do so in memory.

Ultimately this is really about the huge disparity in resources here. The Obama team can do more than merely say they believe they have a real shot at states like Indiana. They can afford to act like they believe it, too.


Late Update: A commenter below puts it well: "Is it really in play? We won't know without playing there. That's the whole point: only one way to find out." And they have the resources to find out -- that's the real key.

Will There Even Be Any Scary Right-Wing Groups Swift-Boating Obama?

The Politico has a terrific story today reporting that there really isn't any frightening apparatus of right-wing independent groups gearing up to Swift Boat Obama -- even though the specter of such efforts is central to Obama's justification for opting out of the public financing system.

Indeed, the story reports that the super-rich oil baron who was the lead funder of such efforts against John Kerry is not going to shell out a dime this time around:

T. Boone Pickens, the Texas oilman who gave $3 million to the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and who numerous GOP sources said was being looked to as a funding source this year, is sitting the race out.

"He is not giving anything to 527s involved in the presidential race this cycle, and has communicated that...to Republican strategists and operatives," said Pickens spokesman Jay Rosser.

The dynamic on the right is interesting. I'm told by people involved in trying to launch such efforts that the big GOP money-people are genuinely confused by the anti-527 noises John McCain has been making. They don't know whether to bankroll such efforts, because they can't tell whether McCain would tacitly approve, or whether doing so would actually gain them nothing from McCain.

Meanwhile, others are trying to decide whether they even care what McCain thinks, and are weighing putting money into them simply to stop Obama, regardless of what McCain has said.

Obama And Hillary To Campaign Together

The Obama campaign has just announced that the presumptive nominee will be campaigning next Friday, June 27, with a very special guest: Hillary Clinton, who has been urging her supporters to unite behind Obama.

No further details -- where, what time, etc. -- have been announced yet, but we'll keep you posted.

Election Central Morning Roundup

Strategist: Obama Could Raise Up To Half A Billion!
Barack Obama's decision to forego public financing might just net him a whole lot more than the $80 million the government would have given him, with Dem strategist Tad DeVine saying that his small-donor base could bring in as much as $500 million. Even half that amount would allow him to fight in states previously considered off-limits for Democrats, and to really overpower John McCain if the Republican is unable to match it.

Is Obama's Decision The End Of Public Finance?
The New York Times writes this morning that Barack Obama's decision to opt out of public finance may just be the end of the system as we know it. "Mr. Obama has made the argument that he has achieved online what the public finance system has been unable to do," the paper says. "And he has been freed from the necessity of spending countless hours fund-raising."

Obama And McCain To Hold Dueling Press Conferences Today
Barack Obama will be holding a 4:30 p.m. ET press conference today in Jacksonville, Florida, where the subject of campaign finance is sure to come up with some very pointed questions -- and perhaps some very pointed answers. John McCain will hold his own 1:40 p.m. ET presser from Ottawa, Canada, where he's making a speech on the virtues of free trade.

Obama Calls Two Muslim Women, Apologizes For Snub At Rally
Barack Obama yesterday personally called two Muslim women who were refused the honor of sitting behind him at a Michigan rally, due to volunteers not wanting their headscarves in view of the cameras. We both immensely appreciate the senator's phone call and his commitment to remedy this issue," one of the women told the Detroit Free Press.

Jeb Bush Changes Position, Defends McCain On Offshore Drilling
John McCain's position on offshore drilling is causing very prominent Florida Republican Jeb Bush, to change his long-held opposition. "You can protect the natural resources and the coastline of the state and also be part of national effort to deal with a national security crisis that our country faces right now," Jeb told reporters.

Pennsylvania School District Might Sue Hillary Campaign For Unpaid Bills
The Erie, Pennsylvania, school district is still waiting on a $3,887 bill from the Clinton campaign, for a rally with Bill Clinton held way back on March 12. If it's not paid soon, an administrator told the Erie Times News, it will be referred to their lawyers.

Dem Incumbent Leads In Top-Tier House Race
A new SurveyUSA poll of Indiana's 9th House District gives incumbent Democrat Baron Hill a 51%-40% lead over Republican opponent Mike Sodrel, in a district that went for President Bush by nearly 20 points in 2004. This year's contest is their fourth consecutive match-up, with Hill winning in 2002, losing to Sodrel in 2004, then coming back in 2006.

Poll: Presidential Race A Dead Heat -- In Georgia

In a further sign of just how wide the political playing field is set to be this fall, a new poll finds that Barack Obama may well be able to win Georgia, a state that voted twice for George W. Bush and by healthy margins.

The numbers from InsiderAdvantage: McCain 44%, Obama 43%, within the ±5% margin of error. Some key numbers: Bob Barr, the former right-wing Georgia Congressman turned Libertarian nominee, is getting six-percent support, which otherwise would have probably gone to McCain. Also, InsiderAdvantage estimates that blacks will make up 29% of the electorate, up from 25% in 2004 exit polling.

Obama Camp: We Opted Out Of Public Financing Because McCain Won't Discuss Reining In 527s

So, did the Obama campaign decide to opt out of public financing because their offers to negotiate with the McCain camp over restricting outside ad spending were rebuffed?

That's what the Obama campaign's top legal adviser claimed in a conference call a few moments ago, as the skirmishing over Obama's decision dragged into the evening.

Chief legal counsel Bob Bauer insisted that he'd communicated their concerns at his meeting with McCain counsel Trevor Potter. Instead, Bauer says, Potter never answered their concerns -- and added that McCain has actually tacitly encouraged such 527s to gear up and go after Obama.

"It seems to me that if we scheduled this discussion," Bauer said, "and we put forward our concerns, and we heard nothing back, nor anything in the meeting that could in any way suggest that fruitful exchanges were productive, it isn't clear to me that the McCain campaign is in the position to accuse us of failing to negotiate."

Here's the audio from the call:

On Private Conference Call, Hillary Urges Major Donors To Throw Weight Behind Obama

On a private conference call moments ago, Hillary urged her top fundraisers in no uncertain terms to throw their weight behind Barack Obama, and directly asked them in surprisingly candid terms to give or raise money to help her pay off her campaign's debt.

At the same time, in a move that took some participants on the call by surprise, she also clarified that she was not asking their help in paying off her personal loans to the campaign.

Interestingly, Hillary also suggested that she would soon be making public statements about the media coverage of the campaign, as well as the ways "women were discussed," saying that she would "be doing more on that as we go forward."

"I am going to do everything I can to ensure victory for Senator Obama," Hillary told her fundraisers on the call. "I am asking each of you to do the same. I really believe we've got to see a Democrat sworn into the White House this January."

The call, which I was able to listen to in its entirety, left little doubt that Hillary was unequivocally signaling to her top financial supporters -- who are being actively courted by Obama -- that the time had come for them to do their part in getting him elected President.

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McCain Campaign: Obama's Public Finance Decision "All About Money"

On a conference call just now with reporters, McCain spokesman Tucker Bounds and campaign general counsel Trevor Potter sought to hold Obama to his promise of a year ago to "aggressively pursue" negotiations with the eventual Republican nominee to both opt into public finance.

"This decision by the Obama campaign was all about money," said Bounds. "And the arguments that they are making after the fact are only an attempt to legitimize a decision that was pre-determined and obviously made for other political reasons."

Instead of negotiations, according to Potter, there was a 45-minute meeting between himself and chief Obama counsel Bob Bauer, which was pre-scheduled to discuss other matters at the end of the primary season, during which the subject of public financing came up only briefly -- and it was clear that Bauer was looking at opting out.

"Bob stated that the Obama campaign hadn't decided what they were going to do yet, and were thinking about it," Potter said. "He made a number of points, all of which suggested that there were problems with the system, or it was broken, or it wasn't necessary."

"There was no aggressive pursuit of negotiations with the McCain campaign," Potter later added. "There was no pursuit, period, of negotiations with the McCain campaign."

Here's the audio from the call:

Poll: Obama's Colorado Lead Shrinks; Half Say He's Too Inexperienced

One of Obama's key selling points has been that he has a plausible shot at winning Western states like Colorado -- but a new poll of that state finds that his lead over McCain there has just about evaporated, and half the state's voters are afraid he's too inexperienced to be President.

The latest numbers from Rasmussen: Obama 43%, McCain 41%, with a ±4% margin of error. A month ago, Obama was ahead 48%-42%.

From the pollster's analysis: "Still, 50% of Colorado voters think Obama is too inexperienced to serve in the White House, but 42% disagree."

Alarmed GOP Sends In Bush To Help Save Mississippi Senate Seat

Here's yet another indication that national Republicans think they're seriously at risk of losing a key Senate seat in deep red Mississippi: President Bush is set to visit the state on July 1, for a fundraising event with appointed Sen. Roger Wicker, the Tupelo Daily Journal reports.

Recent polls have shown a close race between Wicker and Democratic candidate Ronnie Musgrove, a former one-term governor -- even though Bush won the state by a 60%-40% margin back in 2004.

This visit tells us two things. First, that Republicans are genuinely worried about this seat and are moving to build up their financial advantage -- and given the state's deep conservatism, a loss here would be devastating. Second, there is at least one state left where a Republican would actually want Bush to visit on his behalf.

McCain: I Will Kill Bin Laden; Obama Won't Say What He'd Do

This isn't terribly surprising, but it's noteworthy: Judging by a new statement McCain just put out slamming Obama, the McCain campaign has clearly made an internal decision to ratchet up its efforts to portray him as not just weak, but as vacillating and indecisive.

This is the real goal of the McCain campaign's attacks on Obama for favoring habeas corpus for terror suspects -- to make the argument that McCain represents clarity of purpose while Obama represents indecision and legalistic obfuscation. Remember the Kerry wind-surfing ad?

Versions of the words "vacillate" and "indecisive" were much more in evidence on the McCain campaign conference call this morning than in past calls.

And McCain's new statement attacks Obama's comment yesterday that we shouldn't make Bin Laden a "martyr" by saying that it sent "a signal of confusion and indecision to our allies and adversaries." McCain added: "Let me be clear, under my administration Osama bin Laden will either be killed on the battlefield or executed."

In other words, just as it did in 2004, the GOP is going out of its way to say that the Democrat's position is unclear and legalistic, even if it is every bit as clear as McCain's, which it is. It's an obvious psych-out. McCain's full statement after the jump.


Late Update: Oh, Lord, this is a good one. Instaputz reminds us that this actually represents a softening of McCain's position: After all, McCain had previously vowed to follow Bin Laden to the gates of hell. Video here.

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John Kerry: Obama's Public Financing Decision Will Enable Him To Avoid My Fate

We like this one. To amplify its message that opting out of public financing was necessary to combat the onslaught of outside 527 ad spending that's likely to hit Obama in the months ahead, the Obama campaign has turned to the perfect messenger: John Kerry.

On a conference call with reporters moments ago, Kerry insisted that the decision was necessary if Obama is to avoid succumbing under a barrage of such spending, as he did.

"You know, the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth hadn't appeared in July of my year as a funded group," Kerry said. "And they were funded in August, which was the time I was tied to campaign finance reform and didn't have the money to respond. And it had an obvious, profound impact. So I think in order to control your campaign and your message, it is essential to be able to respond to those and be free to respond to them."

Kerry's fate at the hands of the Swift Boat Vets, of course, continues to haunt Dems. So he's just the person to make this case and to make John McCain's refusal to forcefully rein in the outside groups on his side look that much more ominous.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

GOP Recycles Hillary Attacks On Obama Again -- This Time On Campaign Finance

Those who predicted that Hillary's harsher attacks on Obama would be recycled by the GOP during the general election were proven right again today.

The Republican National Committee just blasted out this toughly-worded Hillary quote from back in February, hitting Obama over his campaign finance pledge...

"Actions speak louder than words. No matter how beautiful the words are and how well presented, you've got to get beyond the words. And now we're seeing how the words don't even mean what we thought they meant," Clinton said. "So I think it raises some serious questions about what it is he stands for."

The Republicans are working hard to make Obama "own" his pledge, as Mark Halperin put it, by releasing a timeline of Obama's previous statements on public financing.

But as Ben Smith noted earlier today, if the Obama camp has its way, the focus of the spin war will be less over whether Obama broke his word, and more over whether Obama's smashing success with small donors represents a campaign finance revolution of sorts in its own right.

The Obama camp is also likely to keep hammering away at the idea that McCain recently said that he can't control the ad spending of outside groups, as a way of arguing that Obama's decision was made out of necessity and that McCain lacks the leadership and will to curb abuses on his side.

Experts Mixed On Obama's Public Financing Decision

The statements are starting to trickle in from good-government types in reaction to Obama's big decision today to opt out of the public financing system, with one expert viewing the move as one of necessity and another seeing it as a betrayal of a major achievement in campaign-finance reform.

Democracy 21 President Fred Wertheimer pronounced himself "disappointed," saying in a statement that Obama's small-donor revolution doesn't justify the move because the inequities in the system remain.

"The Obama Internet fundraising success," Wertheimer said, "was the exception, not the rule, in the 2008 presidential primaries. Larger contributions of $1,000 or more provided the major source of funding for most of the other major presidential primary candidates."

But David Donnelly of Campaign Money Watch told the Huffington Post that Obama's decision, while "regrettable," is defensible if it enables his victory and subsequent efforts at further reform.

"We find Sen. Obama's decision to forgo public financing for the general election regrettable but understandable in light of the tens of millions of dollars that will be raised and spent outside the system attacking him," Donnelly said. "The real test is whether a candidate has pledged to make passage of public financing a priority if elected, and we intend to hold Sen. Obama accountable to his pledge to do so."

One note about the spin war that's erupted over this: The case being made by the McCain campaign, which blasted Obama's decision, is considerably weakened by the fact that McCain said in an interview that there was little he could do to control outside groups that might swift boat Obama.

The Illinois Senator, by contrast, has instructed his donors not to give to such groups. Now he can argue that his decision to opt out was in response to McCain's weak-willed approach to abuses of the system on his side.

Obama Cuts Ad For Conservative Pro-War House Dem

Barack Obama has cut a radio spot for conservative Dem Rep. John Barrow of Georgia, who favors staying in Iraq and favors immunity for the telecom companies, and he's taking a beating from liberal bloggers over it.

Barrow is loathed by the Netroots, and not without cause: During his 2006 reelection campaign he ran an ad saying that "we can't cut and run" from Iraq. And he was one of the House Dems who sent a letter to Nancy Pelosi demanding that they be permitted to vote for the recent Senate bill giving amnesty to the telecoms.

We obtained a copy of the ad from the Barrow campaign. Give it a listen:

The problem here is that the Netroots are backing a primary challenger to Barrow, State Senator Regina Thomas, and Obama's ad is a blow to their efforts. It's drawn scalding denunciations from Glenn Greenwald and Matt Stoller, who described Barrow as "one of the most reactionary members of Congress."

Obama spokesperson Tommy Vietor responded: "Sen. Obama believes that Congressman Barrow has worked hard to bring change that families in his district deserve."

There are multiple reasons why Obama would do this. For example, he might be trying to send a message to certain House Dems that he can help them even in conservative districts, which could keep them from refusing to endorse him -- something that would give the GOP ammo in the Presidential race.

Obama's First General Election Ad: I Love America

The Obama campaign has announced their first ad of the general election season, a 60-second spot in which Obama re-introduces himself to voters in targeted states with the message that he loves this country:

Obama's narrative is clearly an effort to pitch himself as an accessible, down-to-earth American, and not the out-of-touch foreign bogeyman that some have made him out to be: "I was raised by a single mom and my grandparents. We didn't have much money, but they taught me values straight from the Kansas heartland where they grew up. Accountability and self-reliance. Love of country. Working hard without making excuses."

The ad will run in 18 states -- some of them longtime GOP strongholds that the Obama campaign is now apparently going to contest: Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Virginia.

McCain Team Falsely Charges That Obama Opposes Capital Punishment For Bin Laden

The McCain campaign kept up its attacks on Barack Obama as weak on terror for the third day in a row today, falsely charging on a conference call that Obama opposes capital punishment for Osama Bin Laden.

On the call, McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann reached this conclusion by a curiously circuitous logical route. It went a little something like this: Yesterday, Scheunemann pointed out, Obama said that Bin Laden should be captured in such a way that doesn't "make him into a martyr."

"The last I checked, a martyr is someone who dies for a cause or someone who is killed for a cause," Scheunemann said. "It seems that Senator Obama is ruling out capital punishment."

Actually, Obama has explicitly said that he doesn't oppose capital punishment for Bin Laden. In July of 2007, he said (via Nexis) that after a trial that observed "international standards of due process," Bin Laden would qualify for execution.

"At that point, do I think that somebody who killed 3,000 Americans qualifies as someone who has perpetrated heinous crimes, and would qualify for the death penalty? Then yes," Obama said.

Not that facts matter, of course.

Late Update: Here's the audio from the call:

McCain Campaign: Obama's Opting Out Of Public Financing Shows He's "Typical Politician"

The battle has begun over Barack Obama's decision today to take a pass on public financing, with the McCain camp slamming Obama as a "typical politican" who broke an earlier pledge not to do this...

"Today, Barack Obama has revealed himself to be just another typical politician who will do and say whatever is most expedient for Barack Obama.

"The true test of a candidate for President is whether he will stand on principle and keep his word to the American people. Barack Obama has failed that test today, and his reversal of his promise to participate in the public finance system undermines his call for a new type of politics.

"Barack Obama is now the first presidential candidate since Watergate to run a campaign entirely on private funds. This decision will have far-reaching and extraordinary consequences that will weaken and undermine the public financing system."

More on this in a bit.

Late Update: The Obama campaign is blaming the McCain campaign for its decision, saying that Obama advisers met privately with McCain advisers, who were not interested in reaching an agreement. Full statement from Obama spokesperson Bill Burton after the jump.

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Dem Who Said Obama "May Be Terrorist-Connected": Fox News Made Me Do It!

This is both sad and funny. A Tennessee Democrat is now apologizing for saying last week that Barack Obama might be "terrorist-connected" -- and he's blaming Fox News for putting the idea in his head!

"My statement that Senator Obama 'may be terrorist-connected' was incorrect and I apologize for making it," said Fred Hobbs, a member of the state party's executive committee, in a letter obtained by the Chattanooga Times Free Press.

In perhaps the mother of all understatements, Hobbs added that his comments were caused by "what I had seen reported on Fox News, but I should have taken some time to check the accuracy of what I saw on television before speaking publicly."

GOP Strategist: Barack Obama Seems "Softer" Than Michelle

Keep an eye out for this one, because it's a none-too-subtle GOP smear we'll be hearing a lot of before long.

Here is GOP strategist Alex Castellanos -- the same worthy fellow who made that 1990 Jesse Helms ad showing white hands crumpling up a resume -- on CNN yesterday evening, discussing Michelle Obama's appearance on The View...

CASTELLANOS: For example, on "The View" today, she said, look, I didn't want my husband to be -- get involved in politics. It's too mean. And he's such a sweet and either -- and empathetic guy.

(CROSSTALK)

CASTELLANOS: She has often made him sound like the softer side of that relationship, and that she is the strength of it. It's important to know in that case. Hey, a lot of relationships are like that.

It's "important" to know that Barack is "softer" than Michelle if it's true, eh? Why is that?

This trick of feminizing Dems is hardly confined to the GOP, of course. Some pundits -- in particular, certain high-profile female columnists -- love to help the GOP do this on a regular basis, as we've already seen.

Here, though, it's a kind of double-smear, hitting both Michelle and Barack in one shot.

Late Update: Here's video...


Obama Opting Out Of Public Finance

Barack Obama made a big announcement this morning via YouTube: That his campaign is opting out of public financing for the general election, and foregoing $80 million in government money:

Obviously, Obama would not be doing this if he did not reasonably expect his small-donor base to get him even more cash, free of restrictions that come with public finance, and that he'd be able to outspend John McCain.

The Republicans are likely to hammer him as a hypocrite for this, as he'd indicated a year ago that he wanted to broker a deal with the GOP nominee to both opt into public finance -- which the lesser-funded McCain campaign has been trying to hold him to.

Obama has his answer to that: That McCain has declared he won't police 527 activity on his behalf, which would defeat the purpose of public finance. Declaring the finance system broken, Obama added, "We face opponents who have become masters of gaming this broken system."

The big questions now are whether any attacks over opting out would actually have political pull, and whether his donor base will be able to come through in the way the campaign is betting they will.

Late Update: The McCain campaign blasts Obama for the decision.

New Poll Gives McCain The Lead In Florida

A new Rasmussen poll of Florida finds John McCain with a decent lead over Barack Obama in this big swing state. The numbers: McCain 47%, Obama 39%, with a ±4% margin of error.

This is contrary to a Quinnipiac poll from yesterday, which gave Obama a 47%-43 lead here, making the reality of the situation ambiguous. Obama's campaign has downplayed Florida as a must-win state, though they do plan to actively contest it. If they were able to win it, then a victory would become exceedingly difficult for John McCain.

Wall St. Journal Pans Bush And McCain On Offshore Drilling As Gas-Price Fix

The proposal by George W. Bush and John McCain to lift the bans on offshore oil drilling -- pitched as a solution to gas prices -- is getting a thumbs down from an unlikely source: The Wall St. Journal, which says it is simply not a short-term fix.

"If the bans were lifted tomorrow," the Journal says, "it would be at least seven years -- and likely as long as a decade -- before the first oil began to flow off the coasts of Florida, California and the eastern seaboard."

Obama: You Wanna Talk About 9/11? Well, Let's Talk About 9/11!

Barack Obama continues hitting back hard today at the false McCain/GOP assaults on him for allegedly seeing terrorism as only a law-enforcement problem...

"I refuse to be lectured on national security by people who are responsible for the most disastrous set of foreign policy decisions in the recent history of the United States. The other side likes to use 9/11 as a political bludgeon. Well, let's talk about 9/11.

"The people who were responsible for murdering 3,000 Americans on 9/11 have not been brought to justice. They are Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda and their sponsors -- the Taliban. They were in Afghanistan. And yet George Bush and John McCain decided in 2002 that we should take our eye off of Afghanistan so that we could invade and occupy a country that had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. The case for war in Iraq was so thin that George Bush and John McCain had to hype the threat of Saddam Hussein, and make false promises that we'd be greeted as liberators. They misled the American people, and took us into a misguided war.

"Here are the results of their policy. Osama bin Laden and his top leadership -- the people who murdered 3000 Americans -- have a safe-haven in northwest Pakistan, where they operate with such freedom of action that they can still put out hate-filled audiotapes to the outside world. That's the result of the Bush-McCain approach to the war on terrorism."

The key line there is "let's talk about 9/11." Keep in mind that this latest GOP assault is not so much about the substance of the argument as it is about trying to project a sense that the McCain campaign is the one on offense. Obama isn't playing along.

Only two years ago, some Dems were still saying, "please, please, PLEASE, let's NOT talk about 9/11." Now Obama is inviting an argument about it -- and more important, he's saying it's an argument he will win. That's the key here.

Poll: Michelle Obama Viewed Favorably By More Americans Than Cindy McCain

If Michelle Obama is indeed edging into a more public role in the campaign, as The New York Times asserted today, she starts with an advantage over her Republican counterpart:

Forty-eight percent of Americans in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll see Obama favorably, vs. 39 percent for McCain, a 9-point Obama advantage. Slightly more, though, also view Obama unfavorably -- 29 percent vs. McCain's 25 percent.

Substantially more, 36 percent, haven't yet formed an opinion of McCain, vs. 23 percent in Obama's case. For both, those are sizable numbers who've yet to make a judgment.

Via The Page. The poll's internals also have some interesting numbers, showing that more non-feminists and more white women view Michelle favorably.

Given that a fictitious video tape of Michelle supposedly saying bad things about white people got at least as much attention as Cindy's initial refusal to disclose her income, that's not a bad starting place.

John Doolittle Lives!

Just when we thought we'd seen the last of Rep. John Doolittle, the TPMmuckraker All-Star whose associations with Jack Abramoff have forced him into retirement, it turns out he may be set to hit the campaign trail all over again -- and there's a Republican out there who will actually be seen with him!

As it turns out, he's in talks with GOP nominee Tom McClintock's camp to appear together -- a development that could increase the Dems' chances of picking up this red district thanks to Doolittle's high negatives.

McClintock spokesman Stan Devereux told Election Central that the ongoing investigations against Doolittle would not render him a political liability: "Doolittle is still the congressman for the area, has served the district well."

Of course, the source of the problem here is the extent to which Doolittle served Abramoff<