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June 22, 2008 - June 28, 2008

McCains Delinquent On Tax Bill

This isn't exactly the kind of story that speaks positively of John McCain's ability to manage the public's finances.

Newsweek is reporting that John and Cindy McCain failed to pay taxes on a California property for the past four years. This is especially odd considering that the McCains are worth an estimated $100 million, and could easily afford to pay the bill.

After a reporter inquired about the bill with the McCain campaign, they immediately sent San Diego County a check for $6,744.42 -- and even then, they're still short by $1,742.

This is not the first unflattering report about the McCains' finances, by the way. Two weeks ago, it was reported that they were carrying a six-figure credit card debt, compared to the Obamas being debt-free and actually saving up a similar amount for their daughters' college funds.

Election Central Saturday Roundup

Obama To Tour Foreign Countries
The Obama campaign has announced that the candidate will be embarking on an overseas tour and meet with foreign leaders -- an important step in establishing a credible image on foreign policy. The candidate will visit Britain, France, Germany, Israel and Jordan, and the trip is expected to take place some time in July.

Obama And McCain Courting Latinos Today
Barack Obama and John McCain are both speaking today before the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials conference in Washington. For John McCain, this is an opportunity to overcome the Latino community's overall antipathy towards the Republican Party and its anti-immigrant bent. For Obama, his job is to secure the lead he currently has in the polls among a demographic where he lagged way behind during the primaries.

McCain: Obama "Didn't Seem To Be Serious" About Town Halls
During a campaign appearance yesterday in Cleveland, John McCain expressed pessimism about Barack Obama taking up his challenge of holding 10 town-hall meetings in the course of the campaign. The Obama campaign had previously answered with an offer of five appearance, being three traditional debates and two town halls. "The response, in all due respect, didn't seem to be serious," McCain said.

Hagel: I'm Closer To Obama Than McCain
Sen. Chuck Hagel, the conservative Nebraska Republican who has turned vocally against the Iraq War, has indicated in an interview with Bloomberg TV that he does not plan to publicly endorse any candidate for president. Hagel added, however, that his differences with Barack Obama were probably "not as big" as his differences with John McCain.

Poll: McConnell Under 50 In Kentucky
A new Rasmussen poll of Kentucky finds Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell leading Democratic businessman Bruce Lunsford by a 48%-41%, margin, with a ±4.5% margin. This is an improvement from their poll from a month ago, which had Lunsford ahead after his primary victory, but still a mark of concern for a four-term Senator who has become the leader of his party. Keep an eye on this race in the months ahead.

Elizabeth Dole Reverses Herself On Offshore Drilling
The Charlotte Observer reports that Sen. Elizabeth Dole opposed offshore drilling near North Carolina as recently as last week, but has now introduced a bill to give states the option of allowing it -- in line with President Bush and John McCain's embrace of the issue. "Now, more than ever, responsible and practical steps are needed to increase our energy independence and strengthen economic and national security," Dole said in a statement.


Poll: Tight Race In Ohio

A new SurveyUSA poll in Ohio shows a very tight race in this big swing state -- and significant movement in John McCain's favor, too, though Barack Obama is maintaining a nominal lead.

The numbers: Obama 48%, McCain 46%, with a ±4.2% margin of error. A month ago, it was Obama 48%, McCain 39%.

GOP Candidates: Republicans? Who, Us?

We knew the Republican brand is in trouble, but this is just ridiculous. Two statewide Republican candidates in this year's elections in Washington state are choosing to run without that pesky R-word next to their names.

This was made possible by the recent adoption of a new electoral system for the state, known as "Top-Two." All candidates will run on the same ballot, and the top two will go to a runoff election, regardless of party. The tricky part is that each candidate will get to choose the party label next to their name.

All of this means a Republican can list himself as something else -- and one of the two candidates even acknowledged to us that he's doing so precisely because he knows the GOP brand is lethal.

Read more »


Yet Another Republican Pushes China-Cuba Oil Myth

This just keeps getting more and more absurd. Now the tall tale about China drilling for oil off American shores has found its way into a House GOP candidate's campaign flyer.

And to make matters even more ridiculous, the candidate's staffers are giving us conflicting information about whether he even sent it out!

The flyer is the work of John Gard, a Wisconsin Republican who narrowly lost a Congressional race in 2006 and is now seeking a rematch against freshman Democrat Steve Kagen. It was handed out at a county fair on June 15, a few days after Dick Cheney was forced to admit that his story about China drilling for oil in the Gulf of Mexico was false.

And this gets even sillier still.

Read more »

Obama Campaign Manager's New Video Lays Out Strategy For Victory

This is pretty novel. Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has filmed a new Web video of himself, using a laptop in his office, in which he rallies the troops with a PowerPoint about the campaign's strategy to win the general election.

The Obama campaign is emailing out the video to supporters. Give it a watch:

In it, Plouffe makes points similar to the ones he made in a PowerPoint presentation to reporters the other day, but with a new PowerPoint. Now the Obama camp wants it to get out to its broader audience of supporters.

Plouffe optimistically tells viewers that John McCain doesn't have many opportunities to grab any of the 252 electoral votes that went to Kerry, while the Obama camp is going after 2004 red states like Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada, and even some "unusual" places like Alaska, Montana and North Dakota.

At the same time, Plouffe make sure to stress to supporters that they can't just take it easy. As he points out, the apparent cash different between Obama and McCain will be mediated by the RNC's $50 million lead over the DNC -- not an inconsiderable difference, considering that the McCain campaign will be relying on the RNC for a lot of heavy lifting.

"John McCain, the RNC, the shadowy outside groups, are not gonna let this election happen without a fight," Plouffe says. He adds a warning that Michelle, too, will be a target: "And so right around the corner we're gonna see millions of dollars attacking Barack, attacking Michelle Obama, and we have to have the ability to fight back."

Bill And Hillary Max Out To Obama, Giving $4,600 To His Campaign

Wow, the unity love is really gushing today.

Hillary spokesperson Mo Elleithee confirms to me that Bill and Hillary Clinton have now maxed out to Obama, donating $4600 to his campaign today.

It's a strong signal to the Clinton fundraising elite and donor base that the time has come to open the wallets for Obama. It comes a day after the Obamas similarly maxed out to Hillary's campaign to relieve it of debt.

Late Update: Check out our highlight reel of today's Obama-Hillary unity event...


Obama Social Networking Group Forms -- To Pressure Obama On FISA

There's been a bunch of speculation about what will happen after the election to the formidable Internet social networking tools Obama's Internet operation has spawned, such as the networking groups over at MyBarackObama, for instance.

Well, here's one interesting possibility: What if they were used in some way to oppose Obama on one issue or another?

That's already happened in one case. Over on Barack Obama's Web site, someone has set up a new social networking group devoted solely to getting Obama to oppose the FISA bill he announced his support for earlier this week.

It's got almost 500 members, which is dwarfed by other MyBo groups, though it's only been existence for 24 hours. This is perhaps suggestive of what this machinery could be used for on occasion if Obama makes it into the White House.

Conservative Activist Grover Norquist: Obama Is "Kerry With A Tan"

Hmmm. Check out conservative activist Grover Norquist's less-than-tasteful description of Barack Obama:

Norquist dropped by The Times' Washington bureau today and, as part of his negative critique of Obama's liberal stances on economic issues and other matters, he termed the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee "John Kerry with a tan."

Guess it could have been worse. He could have termed the Illinois Senator "John Kerry in blackface."

Such admirable restraint on Norquist's part!

Unity Event Designed To Achieve Unity About To Start In Unity

The event of the week is about to start: Obama and Hillary at their first public unity event in Unity, New Hampshire.

As one politico cracked to me a few minutes ago, the two in their matching outfits look like a "couple going to the prom"...

Some live-blogging of the event here.

We'll bring you video of all the action soon.

Late Update: You can watch the event live right here on the Obama campaign's web site.

Dodd Praises Reid's Leadership On FISA

Senator Chris Dodd has emerged as a hero for the netroots and for opponents of the Dems' FISA cave-in because of his steady opposition to telecom immunity and his promise to filibuster it.

So it's noteworthy that on the Senate floor last night, in a moment that passed unnoticed, Dodd offered effusive praise of Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid for announcing last week that he opposes the cave-in bill.

"I commend the majority leader," Dodd said, according to a transcript. "He has had a very trying week. The floor staff and others have done a remarkable job in getting us to this point. I wouldn't want this evening to pass without noting they do not get the recognition they often deserve, but this institution functions because there are a lot of people whose names are never known who make this happen."

"I want the record to reflect the deep appreciation I have for the majority leader -- I know others do as well -- for the way in which he and his office have allowed us to achieve the results we have up to this point," Dodd also said.

Given Dodd's high profile on the issue, the praise will make Reid aides very happy, because Reid took some pretty big hits last December from the netroots and other critics who charged that Reid had ignored Dodd's hold on the earlier FISA legislation.

A fuller transcript of Dodd's remarks after the jump.

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Yet Another House GOPer Caught Spreading Tall-Tale About China Drilling For Oil Off America

This is great. We now count three House Republicans who have continued to peddle the myth that China is working with Cuba to drill for oil in the Gulf of Mexico, even though Dick Cheney had already admitted it was bunk.

The latest: Virgil Goode, the Virginia Republican best known for denouncing the election of Rep. Keith Ellison, a Minnesota Democrat, on the grounds that Ellison is a Muslim.

Goode faces a potentially tough challenge from Tom Periello, an international human rights worker who has been aggressively advertising on Christian radio and has also been able to raise a decent amount of money. So Goode's message to his base is clear: Vote for the Dems, and you're voting for China.

Read more »

Obama Hires Top Hillary Policy Adviser

A key hire by the Obama camp: He reportedly signs up senior Hillary policy adviser Neera Tanden, one of her top loyalists, as his new Director of Domestic Policy.

Tanden, a fixture on many a Hillary campaign conference call, was a key architect of her health care plan, which was probably the one domestic policy proposal of hers that was most often compared favorably to Obama's.

Conservative Group Airs Ad Attacking Obama On Choice

The conservative Family Research Council goes up on the air with a new spot using Obama's own recent speech about fatherhood to question his pro-choice views...

The spot, which is airing first in Cincinnatti, followed by Dallas and Atlanda, opens with a clip of Obama during his recent Father's Day speech saying: "We need fathers to recognize that responsibility doesn't just end at conception."

It continues with FRC president Tony Perkins, who's seated holding a toddler and asks: "If, as you say, fatherhood begins at conception, when does life begin?"

The ad is a sign that the major evangelical groups will swallow whatever misgivings they have with McCain and target Obama. Their stepped-up efforts appear to be a reaction to the aggressive evangelical outreach being done by the Obama camp.

New McCain Ad: "Putting Country First" On Energy Policy

John McCain is up with a new ad that seems designed to reframe the battle over energy policy as a national security issue and even to some degree a referendum on the candidates' patriotism:

"John McCain will call America to our next national purpose: Energy Security," the announcer says, and later even adds: "Putting country first. McCain."

It's worth noting that Obama has done better on economic issues in most polls, while McCain has done better on national security -- thus the McCain camp's efforts to rephrase energy prices from being an economic issue to being about security.

The ad will be airing on national cable and in targeted battleground states.

Election Central Morning Roundup

Obama And Clinton Today: Unity In Unity
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton will hold their first public campaign event together since Hillary dropped out of the race -- an important step in sending the right message to any disaffected Hillary voters out there. The location has been much remarked about: The small town of Unity, New Hampshire, where the two candidates tied exactly in the primary.

McCain In Ohio Today
John McCain will be visiting a General Motors plant in Warren, Ohio, today. Ohio is of course a crucial state for Republicans -- no GOP candidate has won the presidency while simultaneously losing Ohio, and George W. Bush's narrow 2004 victory here was crucial to his reelection. Currently, polls show Barack Obama taking the lead here.

Poll: Obama Leads McCain By Five
The new Time Magazine poll gives Barack Obama a narrow lead over John McCain of 43%-38%, with a ±4% margin of error. Obama beats McCain 44%-37% on who is trusted more with the economy, while McCain wins 53%-33% on the issue of national security and terrorism.

Clinton To Donors: Give To Obama
At last night's joint event with Barack Obama in front of her own top donors, Hillary Clinton repeated her call for her supporters to raise money for Obama. "We are a family," Clinton said, "and we have an opportunity now to really demonstrate clearly we do know what's at stake, and we will do whatever it takes to win back this White House." No word yet on whether she asked them to go to BarackObama.com.

NRCC: Damaged GOP Brand Has Lost Us Special Election
An internal report at the National Republican Congressional Committee has identified a key reason why they lost special elections for red districts in Illinois, Louisiana and Mississippi: The poisonous political environment hurting the whole Republican brand. "None of the candidates nor their allies successfully established themselves and their local brand in contrast to the negative perception of the national GOP," the report says.

Bush Pastor Launches Pro-Obama Site
Here's a funny item to start your morning. Rev. Kirbyjon Caldwell, the Methodist minister who officiated at the wedding of Jenna Bush and Henry Hager, has launched a new pro-Obama Web site, JamesDobsonDoesntSpeakForMe.com. Caldwell previously spoke at the Republican National Convention in 2000, and still considers Bush a friend, but is now reaching out to religious voters on Obama's behalf.

Obama Donates To Hillary's Debt Relief

Barack Obama has taken a major symbolic step towards party unity: In his efforts to help repay Hillary Clinton's debts, he and Michelle have personally donated the maximum $4,600 to Hillary's defunct campaign.

The announcement was made at a joint event with Clinton before a group of her donors in Washington, and was met with applause from the formerly Hillary-backing audience.

Terry McAuliffe proudly showed two checks -- one from the Obama, another from $4,600 from Obama finance chair Penny Pritzker and her husband -- to reporters gathered outside the event.

Lieberman Plays The Wright Card

We already knew that McCain supporter Joe Lieberman had adopted a role as a leading critic of Obama on foreign policy. But now, judging from some quotes buried in this new ABC News interview with the self-described Independent Democrat, it looks as if Lieberman has expanded his repertoire to include attacks on Obama over Reverend Wright, too:

"In fairness we don't know if Rev. Wright said these inflammatory, anti-American, racial comments every Sunday, but I would not continue to go to a synagogue where that kind of rhetoric was spoken," Lieberman said, adding, "I think it did raise questions in people's minds about why did he stay in the church that long," but he said he would "take (Obama) at his word" and move on.

Hmmm. Is Lieberman taking Obama "at his word" and moving on? Or is he saying that Wright should "raise questions" about why Obama stayed in the church?

Lieberman defenders like to say that his criticism of fellow Dems is consigned to their foreign policy views, but he now appears to view racially-tinged criticism of their pastors as fair game, too.

Polls: Dems Running Strong In Multiple Senate Races

A bunch of new polls of Senate races around the country paint a very bright picture of the Democrats' prospects, with Dem candidates running strong all over the map. But it's not entirely good news:

In Colorado, Quinnipiac has Democrat Mark Udall ahead of Republican Bob Schaffer by a 48%-38% margin, for an open Republican-held seat.

In New Jersey, Fairleigh Dickinson puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg way ahead of Republican Dick Zimmer, by a 45%-28% margin.

In Mississippi, Rasmussen gives appointed Republican incumbent Roger Wicker a statistically insignificant 48%-47% edge over Democrat Ronnie Musgrove -- not significantly changed since their last poll from a month ago that put Musgrove ahead 47%-46%, despite an extensive ad campaign by Wicker in this deep-red state. Keep an eye on this one.

In Texas, a new poll from Texas Lyceum gives incumbent Republican John Cornyn an insignificant 38%-36% lead over Democrat Rick Noriega -- a very high number of undecideds in a race featuring an incumbent who has been elected statewide on multiple occasions.

The one sore spot is Minnesota, where Al Franken continues to trail incumbent Republican Norm Coleman. Quinnipiac puts it at Coleman 51%, Franken 41% -- a bad sign for Dems, if the Republican is above 50% in this blue state.

Late Update: This post originally used numbers from an incorrect page at Rasmussen's site for the Mississippi race. It has been corrected.

Bleak House: GOP Prospects For Holding House Seat Grow Worse And Worse

The GOP's prospects for holding onto a key House seat in New York -- once practically assured in their Staten Island stronghold -- have rapidly gotten bleaker and bleaker, to the point where the seat could be on its way to the Democrats.

After wealthy GOP candidate Frank Powers -- who wasn't even the party's first choice to begin with -- tragically passed away over the weekend, the party has had to go hunting for a new one. But one potential candidate after another has bailed. They include a local TV newscaster, multiple state legislators, a local D.A., and at least half a dozen others -- to a person, they've all said, Thanks but no thanks.

"It's a crazy situation," said former Rep. Guy Molinari, the unofficial leader of the Staten Island GOP, in a phone interview with Election Central.

Read more »

The Last Dem Presidential Candidate To Campaign In Alaska? J.F.K.

Here's yet another potential Obama-JFK comparison for you.

If Obama does actually end up campaigning in deep-red Alaska, as his state director said he might do later this summer, he'll join a rarefied club that includes exactly one other member: The 35th President of the United States.

Our readers have rendered their verdict: The last -- and only -- Democratic Presidential candidate to campaign in Alaska was John F. Kennedy, during the 1960 campaign against Richard Nixon.

You can read the speech JFK gave in that state on September 3rd of that year right here.

GOP Senator Questions Obama's Bipartisanship -- But He Repeatedly Worked With Obama!

This is a fun one. On the McCain conference call this morning, GOP Senator Sam Brownback questioned Obama's bipartisan credentials -- even though Brownback himself has repeatedly worked with the Illinois Senator.

"I think that the biggest thing really I've seen from Barack Obama is that willingness, an aggressiveness, to talk bipartisan and yet to vote and be hard left," Brownback said.

But as the Obama campaign was quick to point out, Obama has done far more than "talk bipartisan" when it comes to Brownback himself.

Brownback himself sent out a press release in May 2007, touting their co-sponsorship of the "Iran Sanctions Enabling Act," which would increase economic pressure on Iran.

Obama was an official co-sponsor of Brownback's Darfur Peace and
Accountability Act in 2006.

Brownback and Obama collaborated to introduce legislation establishing a clear U.S. policy towards the Congo in 2005.

We found these with Google in about three seconds, and there are more.

Not that facts matter, of course.

Obama To Lose "Height Advantage" At Debates With McCain?

A funny catch from McClatchy -- or perhaps not so funny, depending on where you're, er, standing...

Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama would sit at a table at two of three presidential debates this fall, according to a formal proposal unveiled Thursday, which, perhaps unintentionally, would neutralize Obama's height advantage.

The Commission on Presidential Debates proposed the less formal, more conversational talk-show format for two of three 90-minute debates it's seeking this fall. The third debate would be a town hall-style session in which the candidates would be free to get up from high stools and walk around the stage...

Obama is about 6 feet 1 inch tall; McCain is 5 feet 9.

The two nominees haven't yet responded to the commission's proposal. We'll let you know if they do.

Hey, it wouldn't be the first time that completely meaningless trivia impacted a presidential race, would it?

Vote On FISA Delayed Until July

Looks like the Senate vote on the FISA cave legislation, which was set for as early as today or tomorrow, has been postponed until Senators come back from recess in July:

Objections by Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) will push back an overhaul of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) until after lawmakers return in July, Democratic leaders said Thursday. Feingold is strongly opposed to language that would likely give telephone companies that participated in warrantless surveillance retroactive immunity from lawsuits.

"It doesn't look like it," Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) said of taking up the FISA bill this week. "Sen. Feingold wants additional time and would like to postpone it until after the Fourth of July."

It's possible that this could make life a bit tougher for Senators who support the legislation and wanted to put the vote on it behind them. And it's certainly a setback for the measure's champions in the House, such as Rep. Steny Hoyer, who have been eager to get the cave-in bill signed into law already.

McCain And Obama Battle It Out Over Supreme Court Handgun Decision

The Obama and McCain campaigns are battling it out today over the Supreme Court decision striking down the D.C. handgun ban, and McCain's team moved aggressively to put Obama on defense over an issue that has long bedeviled Dems in Presidential campaigns.

In a statement just out from his campaign -- which is after the jump -- Obama supported today's decision. Obama said that despite striking down the ban it had "endorsed" the view that "crime-ravaged communities" can act to protect themselves through gun control measures.

Last year an Obama aide indicated that Obama thought the ban was Constitutional. And so the Obama campaign moved to preempt any criticism of him for flip-flopping by saying this morning that that language was an "inartful" description of his position, adding that in fact Obama hasn't taken a position on whether the D.C. gun law was at odds with the Second Amendment.

Needless to say, the GOP didn't really accept this explanation. The McCain camp quickly threw together a conference call to blast Obama for changing his position. "This is either an incredible flip flop or incredible inexperience on this issue," Senator Sam Brownback, a McCain supporter, charged on the call.

One interesting tidbit that foreshadows what's ahead: As Jonathan Martin notes, McCain's statement on the Supreme Court decision went out of its way to highlight Obama's infamous "bitter" remarks, saying:

Unlike the elitist view that believes Americans cling to guns out of bitterness, today's ruling recognizes that gun ownership is a fundamental right -- sacred, just as the right to free speech and assembly.

Full statements from Obama and McCain after the jump.

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In Four Key Battleground States, Majorities Favor Staying In Iraq Until It's "Stable"

Not sure how to account for this one. Take a look at these numbers on Iraq buried in the new Quinnipiac polls of Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin...

As you can see, in every one of these key battleground states, majorities favor staying in Iraq until the situation is "stable," and then withdrawing troops, which in some ways is closer to the GOP's current stated position, though not really identical with it. In all four, decided minorities favor starting withdrawal immediately, with the goal of completing withdrawal in 18 months.

The funny thing about this is that there are two ways of reading it. Either these numbers favor McCain, for obvious reasons. Or, alternatively, they may suggest that McCain is screwed -- in states where majorities favor staying in Iraq until stability is achieved, he's still losing to Obama, in some cases by sizable margins.


Late Update: As a commenter rightly notes below, one key takeaway here is that the debate over Iraq that unfolds in the coming months will be heavily influenced by who successfully defines the terms of this debate -- terms like "stability" and "winning."

Late Late Update: I agree with those of you who say the hed wasn't quite right, and have changed it accordingly. And yes, the question in this poll was badly phrased, which probably explains the findings. That said, it isn't enough to merely note this and conclude that Obama has already won the debate over Iraq. While majorities nationally favor withdrawal, there still is a debate over Iraq looming, and Obama has to win it.

Obama To Campaign In ... Alaska?

Wow, talk about broadening the map. The Anchorage Daily News reports that Obama may actually campaign in Alaska, a state that's about as red as it gets.

"That is the plan -- we are pretty sure he's going to come at the end of the summer," Obama's new Alaska state director, Kat Pustay, told the paper.

We'll believe that when we see it, but if he does go it would be quite a statement. The last Democrat to win Alaska was Lyndon Johnson, during his landslide victory in 1964. John Kerry got only 36% there in 2004, and Al Gore fared even worse four years earlier, winning only 28%.

Late Update: We're not sure if a Dem presidential candidate has ever campaigned in Alaska, but we're sure our historian/reader types can figure it out...

Rendell On Bill Clinton's Alleged Hard Feelings Towards Obama: "Get Over It," "Shake It Off"

When you write an item about leading Hillary supporter Ed Rendell, you are required to describe him as "blunt." And here is Rendell again, being, well, blunt about Bill Clinton's alleged hard feelings towards Obama...

Bill has to "get over it," and "shake it off," Rendell says. Did someone say he's blunt?

Ben Smith noted yesterday that Obama's campaign has harmed Bill in some ways, because Obama has run an implicit campaign against his presidency. That said, who the heck knows if Bill is really "miffed" with Obama, as everyone keeps saying; the original report that got this going is based only on the word of an anonymous Democrat who supposedly spoke to Bill.

I don't know if Bill is "miffed" or not. He very well may be, and if he is in fact "miffed," Rendell is right; he should get over it. Either way, it has now become true that Bill is "miffed," and there will be no changing that, ever.

Polls: Obama Ahead In Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota And Wisconsin

Barack Obama is well-positioned to win a set of key swing states, a new round of Quinnipiac polls suggests -- and some of these aren't even close. The numbers:

Colorado
Obama (D) 49%, McCain (R) 44%
Margin of error: ±2.7%.

Michigan
Obama (D) 48%, McCain (R) 42%
Margin of error: ±2.6%.

Minnesota
Obama (D) 54%, McCain (R) 37%
Margin of error: ±2.5%.

Wisconsin
Obama (D) 52%, McCain (R) 39%
Margin of error: ±2.5%.

Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin all voted narrowly for John Kerry and Al Gore, while Colorado gave its nine electoral votes to George W. Bush twice. So it's definitely a good sign for Obama that he's way ahead in Minnesota and Wisconsin, and has decent-sized leads in both Colorado and Michigan.

Yet Another Dem-Aligned Outside Group Closes Up Shop

Another Dem-leaning independent group has now closed up shop: The Fund for America, a group formed in preparation for the 2008 race that raised money from the Democratic Party's heaviest-hitting donors, including George Soros.

It's yet another sign of just how rapidly Obama is remaking the Democratic Party machinery in his own image: Fund for America is closing up because the Obama camp signaled to its big money people to stop giving to such groups.

It's only the latest such organization to follow Obama's will: Progressive Media USA, the group led by Media Matters' David Brock, recently announced that it would not be running ads in the general election. And MoveOn recently shuttered its 527, as first reported here.

It's worth stressing again what a major gamble this is on Obama's part: In exchange for centralizing control of his message within his campaign, he's effectively disarmed these big-spending groups, even as the GOP is almost certain to ramp up outside activities on its side. Of course, Obama's enormously successful fundraising could render that activity moot.

Election Central Morning Roundup

Obama Camp Gives Donors Fundraising Goal For Hillary's Debts
The Obama campaign has put some teeth in its request to donors to help Hillary Clinton's campaign retire its debts, assigning them an official goal. "Barack has asked each of us to collect five or six checks to help Senator Clinton repay the people who provided goods and services to her campaign," wrote Obama national finance chair Penny Pritzker in an e-mail to top fundraiser.

Obama To Appear In Pennsylvania, Then Raise Money With Clinton In DC
Barack Obama will hold an economic summit today with various national business leaders in Pittsburgh, an area that was not particularly kind to him in the primary and where he'll need a strong general election showing. He will then head to DC tonight for a fundraiser with Hillary Clinton -- a show of party unity in front of a crowd of her own donors.

McCain Campaigning In Ohio
John McCain will be holding a town hall event today in Cincinnati, a Republican-leaning area in a state where a loss would make it very difficult for him to win the White House. Expect McCain to stick with some of his standard themes from the last few days: That he's serious on energy policy, that Barack Obama isn't offering any solutions, and that Obama has broken his promises on campaign finance.

Obama Campaign To Deploy "Persuasion Army"
In its strategy for the general election, the Obama campaign plans to rely on what it calls a "persuasion army," confirmed supporters who will talk to their friends and neighbors about the campaign. Campaign manager David Plouffe favorably cited the Bush campaign in 2004, which employed the same tactic.

Swift Boat Financier Doesn't Pay Reward To Kerry Allies
T. Boone Pickens, the chief financier of the Swift Boat Veterans For Truth, has unsurprisingly declined to pay his offered $1 million reward to anyone who can disprove the group's 2004 allegations against John Kerry's war record. A group of veterans who served with Kerry submitted a total of 54 pages meant to prove that ten specific charges had been lies.

Cash-Strapped Dem Convention Cutting Volunteer Field Trip
The Democratic National Convention's organizing committee, which is currently $11 million short of its fundraising goals, is scrapping its plan to reward the over 12,000 volunteers with a post-convention trip to the Denver Zoo. No doubt they'll meet enough goofy animals at the convention center, anyway.

Left-Wing Independent Withstands Dem Ballot Challenge In Maine Senate Race

Democrats got a bit of bad news yesterday in the Maine Senate race, when the secretary of state overruled the Maine Democratic Party's bid to challenge left-wing independent candidate Herbert Hoffman's ballot petitions.

Hoffman, whose anti-war platform could potentially win votes that would have otherwise gone to Democrat Tom Allen, was found to have 38 valid signatures more than were necessary to get on the ballot.

Incumbent Republican Susan Collins has led Allen in all the polls, but the most recent survey from Rasmussen found it to be turning into a single-digit race.

Obama On FISA: Telecom Immunity Issue Doesn't Override National Security

At a presser today, Obama weighed in again on the FISA cave, and suffice it to say that what he said won't make opponents any less unhappy about Obama's position than they were already.

Asked specifically why he's supporting the current FISA bill when he'd promised months ago to support a filibuster of an earlier version of the bill, Obama suggested flat out that "national security" overrides the question of telecom immunity...

It's true that Obama says mitigating things like we need to be "watching the watchers." But here's the key quote from him:

"The bill has changed. So I don't think the security threats have changed, I think the security threats are similar. My view on FISA has always been that the issue of the phone companies per se is not one that overrides the security interests of the American people."

Obama's line on national security here seems to be affirmation of something that many understood already: That he will support the bill even if telecom immunity isn't stripped from it, despite his promise to try to get immunity out of the legislation. If the issue of telecom immunity doesn't override national security, he'll of course vote for the bill with or without it.

Separately, the developing politics of this are interesting. Today Harry Reid announced that he will oppose the bill. Many Democrats are now asking, What will Hillary do?

Tea leaf readers note that Hillary's New York colleague, Chuck Schumer, also announced today that he's voting against it. Will Hillary follow suit? It seems like a huge opening for her to repair relations with progressives angry with her over her treatment of Obama during primary. On the other hand, some Dems note a complicating factor: If Hillary votes against the bill, it could cast a bit of a shadow over the planned "unity" Hillary-Obama event on Friday.

Stay tuned.

Late Update: Video added.

Obama Spokesperson: Nader's Comment Is "Reprehensible And Delusional"

This is just brutal. Take a look at Obama communications director Robert Gibbs, who's a bit of a killer, stomping all over Ralph Nader's suggestion that Obama is sidestepping poverty issues such as predatory lending because he wants to "talk white"...

Meanwhile, Matthew Yglesias points out another pesky flaw in Nader's argument: Obama actually does advocate cracking down on predatory lending and other measures to stop financial exploitation of poor people.

Details, details.

Another GOP Rep. Pushing Tall Tale That China Is Drilling For Oil Off American Shores

They just can't seem to get enough of this one. It looks like another Republican is still pushing the idea that China is drilling for oil in deep ocean waters near Cuba -- Rep. Sam Graves of Missouri is continuing to push it even after big-name Republicans like GOP Sen. Mel Martinez and even Dick Cheney have disavowed it, and his staff is refusing to offer any retraction of his statement.

The Missouri Democrats are sending around this YouTube of Graves, who is facing a tough challenge from former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes, pushing the China-Cuba story at local campaign events:

Graves campaign spokesman Jason Klindt is sticking to the story for now.

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Obama Camp Installs Another Hillary Operative In Key Ohio Slot

Attention, junkies -- time for some more staff notes!

The Obama campaign has installed another Hillary operative in a key slot in a crucial swing state: Jackie Bray, who was deputy field director for Hillary in Ohio during the primary, is now taking over field operations for Obama in that state.

Obama spokesperson Josh Earnest confirms the hire to me. Bray is the third Hillary operative the Obama campaign has hired, coming aboard after Hillary campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle and former Hillary spokesperson Isaac Baker, who was hired as Obama's Ohio communications director.

Hillary beat Obama in Ohio by 10 points, so it's a natural for the Obama team to sign Bray up for such a key post in such an important battleground.

Poll: McCain Takes Seven-Point Lead In Missouri

A new SurveyUSA poll shows John McCain taking a decent lead in one battleground state: Missouri.

The numbers: McCain 50%, Obama 43%, with a ±4.3% margin of error. Three weeks ago, Obama had a statistically insignificant lead of 45%-43%. The race here has a very stark gender gap: Men go for McCain 60%-36%, and women for Obama 50%-41%.

This state has 11 electoral votes, and has voted for the winner in every presidential election over the last 100 years except for 1956.